Oţelul vs Rapid Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.91 expected goals for Oţelul and 1.51 for Rapid, a combined total of 2.41. That distribution gives Rapid the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Rapid win

51.2% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

0.91 – 1.51

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Oţelul home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Rapid away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Rapid to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 23% / 26% / 51% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.91 goals for Oţelul and 1.51 for Rapid, a combined 2.41 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Oţelul win23%

Draw26%

Rapid win51%

Double chance 1X

49%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

77%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals70%

Over 2.5 goals43%

Over 3.5 goals22%

Both teams to score46%

Correct score

0–113.5%
1–112.2%
0–210.1%
1–29.2%
0–08.9%

Recent form

Oţelul

2026-10-10T18:30:00.000Z · A vs FCSB · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-03T08:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Bacau · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-21T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Corvinul Hunedoara · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-14T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Universitatea Cluj · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-06T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Rapid · 0-1 (L)

Rapid

2026-10-02T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Genoa · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Arges Pitesti · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-12T18:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Voluntari · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-06T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Oţelul · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-03T17:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Politehnica Timisoara · 2-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Liga I table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Dinamo Bucuresti	11	8	2	1	18	26
2	Rapid	11	7	3	1	9	24
3	Universitatea Craiova	11	7	2	2	16	23
4	Petrolul Ploiesti	11	6	1	4	-1	19
5	Universitatea Cluj	11	6	0	5	2	18
6	Farul Constanta	11	4	5	2	2	17
7	Corvinul Hunedoara	11	4	4	3	3	16
8	CFR 1907 Cluj	11	5	1	5	0	16
9	FCSB	11	4	3	4	-3	15
10	FC Botosani	11	3	5	3	4	14
11	Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe	11	3	4	4	-5	13
12	Uta Arad	11	3	3	5	-3	12
13	Arges Pitesti	11	3	2	6	-5	11
14	Oţelul	11	2	4	5	-5	10
15	FC Voluntari	11	2	2	7	-14	8
16	Csikszereda	11	0	1	10	-18	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Rapid win, at 51.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 43%.

A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.