· Analysis updated 13:35 UTC
Otrant-Olympic vs Arsenal Tivat Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.08 expected goals for Otrant-Olympic and 0.90 for Arsenal Tivat, a combined total of 2.98. That distribution gives Otrant-Olympic the largest share of the 1X2 market at 65%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 65% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Otrant-Olympic win
64.6% probability
Expected goals
2.08 – 0.90
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Otrant-Olympic home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Arsenal Tivat away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Otrant-Olympic to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 65%, against 65% / 20% / 15% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.08 goals for Otrant-Olympic and 0.90 for Arsenal Tivat, a combined 2.98 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
85%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
35%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–011.0%
- 1–010.6%
- 2–19.9%
- 1–19.5%
- 3–07.6%
Recent form
Otrant-Olympic
- 2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Sutjeska · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Petrovac · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-13T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Mornar · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-08T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Mladost DG · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Tirana · 1-4 (L)
Arsenal Tivat
- 2026-10-22T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Buducnost Podgorica · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Mornar · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-13T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Grbalj · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Sutjeska · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-14T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Petrovac · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Otrant-Olympic | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 21 |
| 2 | Mornar | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 20 |
| 3 | Sutjeska | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 19 |
| 4 | Buducnost Podgorica | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 19 |
| 5 | Bokelj | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 18 |
| 6 | Dečić | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 15 |
| 7 | Mladost DG | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -10 | 12 |
| 8 | Petrovac | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | -2 | 11 |
| 9 | Jezero | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | -7 | 11 |
| 10 | Arsenal Tivat | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | -7 | 8 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Otrant-Olympic win, at 64.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.