· Analysis updated 13:36 UTC
Otrant-Olympic vs Dečić Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.37 expected goals for Otrant-Olympic and 1.09 for Dečić, a combined total of 2.46. That distribution gives Otrant-Olympic the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 45% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
70.3% probability
Expected goals
1.37 – 1.09
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Otrant-Olympic home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Dečić away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
57%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.7%
- 1–011.7%
- 0–19.3%
- 2–18.8%
- 0–08.5%
Recent form
Otrant-Olympic
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Tirana · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Jezero · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-14T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Mornar · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-10T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Bokelj · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Buducnost Podgorica · 2-0 (W)
Dečić
- 2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Mornar · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Sutjeska · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-09T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Petrovac · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Mladost DG · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-30T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Jezero · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-23T15:30:00.000Z · Otrant-Olympic 0-3 Dečić (First League)
- 2026-05-06T16:30:00.000Z · Otrant-Olympic 0-1 Dečić (Cup)
- 2026-04-22T14:30:00.000Z · Otrant-Olympic 1-2 Dečić (Cup)
- 2025-05-04T18:00:00.000Z · Otrant-Olympic 2-2 Dečić (First League)
- 2025-03-08T15:00:00.000Z · Otrant-Olympic 2-0 Dečić (First League)
- 2024-10-27T17:00:00.000Z · Otrant-Olympic 0-0 Dečić (First League)
- 2024-08-25T18:45:00.000Z · Otrant-Olympic 2-2 Dečić (First League)
- 2020-06-28T16:00:00.000Z · Otrant-Olympic 0-4 Dečić (Second League)
- 2020-03-01T13:00:00.000Z · Otrant-Olympic 1-1 Dečić (Second League)
- 2019-10-06T12:30:00.000Z · Otrant-Olympic 1-2 Dečić (Second League)
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Otrant-Olympic | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 17 |
| 2 | Buducnost Podgorica | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 15 |
| 3 | Sutjeska | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 15 |
| 4 | Dečić | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 15 |
| 5 | Bokelj | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 15 |
| 6 | Mornar | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 7 | Mladost DG | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 11 |
| 8 | Jezero | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -6 | 10 |
| 9 | Petrovac | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 10 | Arsenal Tivat | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -6 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 70.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 45%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.