· Analysis updated 14:19 UTC
Otrant-Olympic vs Sutjeska Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.28 expected goals for Otrant-Olympic and 1.08 for Sutjeska, a combined total of 2.37. That distribution gives Otrant-Olympic the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
68.7% probability
Expected goals
1.28 – 1.08
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Otrant-Olympic home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Sutjeska away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Otrant-Olympic to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 41% / 28% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.28 goals for Otrant-Olympic and 1.08 for Sutjeska, a combined 2.37 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.0%
- 1–012.0%
- 0–110.2%
- 0–09.4%
- 2–18.4%
Recent form
Otrant-Olympic
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Tirana · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Jezero · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-14T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Mornar · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-10T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Bokelj · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Buducnost Podgorica · 2-0 (W)
Sutjeska
- 2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Arsenal Tivat · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Dečić · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-08T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Mornar · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-04T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Petrovac · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-28T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Mladost DG · 5-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Otrant-Olympic | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 17 |
| 2 | Buducnost Podgorica | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 15 |
| 3 | Sutjeska | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 15 |
| 4 | Dečić | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 15 |
| 5 | Bokelj | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 15 |
| 6 | Mornar | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 7 | Mladost DG | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 11 |
| 8 | Jezero | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -6 | 10 |
| 9 | Petrovac | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 10 | Arsenal Tivat | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -6 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 68.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.