· Analysis updated 16:06 UTC
Ovarense vs Alpendorada Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.96 expected goals for Ovarense and 0.60 for Alpendorada, a combined total of 2.56. That distribution gives Ovarense the largest share of the 1X2 market at 70%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 70% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Ovarense win
69.7% probability
Expected goals
1.96 – 0.60
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ovarense home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Alpendorada away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ovarense to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 70%, against 70% / 20% / 10% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.96 goals for Ovarense and 0.60 for Alpendorada, a combined 2.56 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
90%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
30%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–015.1%
- 2–014.8%
- 3–09.7%
- 1–19.1%
- 2–18.9%
Recent form
Ovarense
- 2026-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Beira-Mar · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Os Marialvas · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Estrela Calheta · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Sousense · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-23T16:00:00.000Z · H vs União Lamas · 1-0 (W)
Alpendorada
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Mação · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Machico · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Sanjoanense · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Rebordosa · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-23T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Camacha · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
No previous meetings were found between these teams. The prediction is still calculated from current form, home and away performance, goals data, team strength and competition statistics.
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ovarense | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 13 |
| 2 | Machico | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 11 |
| 3 | Camacha | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 11 |
| 4 | Castro Daire | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 |
| 5 | Sanjoanense | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 |
| 6 | Salgueiros | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 7 |
| 7 | Florgrade | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
| 8 | Cinfães | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| 9 | União Lamas | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 5 |
| 10 | Estrela Calheta | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -4 | 5 |
| 11 | Beira-Mar | 5 | 0 | 4 | 1 | -2 | 4 |
| 12 | Alpendorada | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 4 |
| 13 | Guarda | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 1 |
| 14 | Sousense | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Ovarense win, at 69.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 39% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.