Oviedo vs Burgos Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.83 expected goals for Oviedo and 1.05 for Burgos, a combined total of 1.88. That distribution gives Burgos the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 32%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 29% for over 2.5 goals and 37% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

71.9% probability

High confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

0.83 – 1.05

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Oviedo home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Burgos away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Burgos to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 28% / 32% / 40% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.83 goals for Oviedo and 1.05 for Burgos, a combined 1.88 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Oviedo win28%

Draw32%

Burgos win40%

Double chance 1X

60%

Double chance 12

68%

Double chance X2

72%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals56%

Over 2.5 goals29%

Over 3.5 goals12%

Both teams to score37%

Correct score

0–116.1%
0–015.3%
1–113.3%
1–012.7%
0–28.5%

Recent form

Oviedo

2026-10-02T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Eldense · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-27T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Sporting Gijon · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Sabadell · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-13T14:15:00.000Z · A vs Valladolid · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-06T14:15:00.000Z · H vs Burgos · 0-0 (D)

Burgos

2026-10-18T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Sabadell · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-12T14:15:00.000Z · H vs Granada CF · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-03T14:15:00.000Z · A vs Almeria · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-27T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Eldense · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-20T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Las Palmas · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Segunda División table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Almeria	11	8	1	2	13	25
2	Castellón	10	7	2	1	14	23
3	Eibar	11	7	1	3	7	22
4	Girona	11	6	3	2	12	21
5	Granada CF	11	6	2	3	4	20
6	Mallorca	11	5	4	2	7	19
7	Sporting Gijon	10	6	1	3	2	19
8	Oviedo	11	5	3	3	3	18
9	Burgos	10	5	2	3	3	17
10	Sabadell	10	4	4	2	2	16
11	Cordoba	11	5	0	6	-3	15
12	Eldense	10	4	2	4	0	14
13	Las Palmas	11	4	2	5	-5	14
14	Tenerife	10	3	4	3	-2	13
15	Valladolid	11	3	3	5	0	12
16	Celta de Vigo II	11	3	3	5	-5	12
17	Leganes	11	3	3	5	-9	12
18	FC Andorra	10	3	1	6	-4	10
19	Real Sociedad II	11	2	2	7	-8	8
20	Cadiz	10	1	4	5	-2	7
21	AD Ceuta FC	10	1	2	7	-13	5
22	Albacete	10	0	1	9	-16	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 71.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 37% and over 2.5 goals at 29%.

A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.