Oxford City vs Merthyr Town Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.40 expected goals for Oxford City and 0.80 for Merthyr Town, a combined total of 2.20. That distribution gives Oxford City the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 38% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Oxford City win

51.1% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.40 – 0.80

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Oxford City home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Merthyr Town away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Oxford City to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 51% / 27% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.40 goals for Oxford City and 0.80 for Merthyr Town, a combined 2.20 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Oxford City win51%

Draw27%

Merthyr Town win21%

Double chance 1X

79%

Double chance 12

73%

Double chance X2

49%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals65%

Over 2.5 goals38%

Over 3.5 goals18%

Both teams to score42%

Correct score

1–015.5%
1–112.4%
0–011.1%
2–010.9%
0–18.9%

Recent form

Oxford City

2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Dorchester Town · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Radcliffe · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · A vs AFC Telford United · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Chorley · 4-0 (W)
2026-08-31T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Worksop Town · 1-0 (W)

Merthyr Town

2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Marine · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-22T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Truro City · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Truro City · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Scarborough Athletic · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Chester · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-04-03T14:00:00.000Z · Oxford City 1-1 Merthyr Town (National League - North)
2025-12-26T13:00:00.000Z · Oxford City 1-3 Merthyr Town (National League - North)

National League - North table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Hereford	12	8	2	2	17	26
2	Oxford City	12	7	3	2	14	24
3	Macclesfield	12	7	3	2	7	24
4	South Shields	12	7	2	3	3	23
5	King's Lynn Town	13	6	3	4	6	21
6	Hednesford Town	13	6	3	4	4	21
7	Chester	12	6	2	4	3	20
8	Buxton	13	6	2	5	0	20
9	Bedford Town	12	6	1	5	0	19
10	Hebburn Town	13	5	4	4	-5	19
11	Morecambe	12	5	2	5	6	17
12	Spalding United	12	5	2	5	3	17
13	Chorley	12	5	2	5	-1	17
14	Worksop Town	13	5	2	6	-5	17
15	Marine	12	5	1	6	1	16
16	Harborough Town	12	4	4	4	-1	16
17	Scarborough Athletic	13	4	3	6	1	15
18	Merthyr Town	13	3	6	4	-1	15
19	Radcliffe	13	5	0	8	-5	15
20	Brackley Town	13	4	3	6	-9	15
21	AFC Telford United	13	3	4	6	-7	13
22	Darlington 1883	13	3	2	8	-7	11
23	Southport	13	2	4	7	-10	10
24	Spennymoor Town	12	1	4	7	-14	7

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Oxford City win, at 51.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 38%.

A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.