· Analysis updated 22:54 UTC
Oxford Sunnyside vs Dungannon Swifts Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.95 expected goals for Oxford Sunnyside and 4.00 for Dungannon Swifts, a combined total of 4.95. That distribution gives Dungannon Swifts the largest share of the 1X2 market at 88%, with the draw at 8%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 85% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 0–3 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 88% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Dungannon Swifts win
88.1% probability
Expected goals
0.95 – 4.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Oxford Sunnyside home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Dungannon Swifts away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Dungannon Swifts to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 88%, against 4% / 8% / 88% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.95 goals for Oxford Sunnyside and 4.00 for Dungannon Swifts, a combined 4.95 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
12%
Double chance 12
93%
Double chance X2
96%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–37.6%
- 0–47.6%
- 1–37.2%
- 1–47.2%
- 0–56.0%
Recent form
Oxford Sunnyside
- 2026-07-24T18:15:00.000Z · H vs Dungannon Swifts · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-21T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Bangor · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-05-01T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Banbridge Town · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-04-21T17:45:35.000Z · A vs Knockbreda · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-04-18T14:00:06.000Z · A vs Portstewart · 1-1 (D)
Dungannon Swifts
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Glentoran · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ballymena United · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Crusaders FC · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Linfield · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Limavady United · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Dungannon Swifts win, at 88.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–3.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 85%.
A 88% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.