Oxford United vs Crawley Town Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.09 expected goals for Oxford United and 1.22 for Crawley Town, a combined total of 3.31. That distribution gives Oxford United the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Oxford United win

57.4% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

2.09 – 1.22

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Oxford United home form
8 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Crawley Town away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 6 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Oxford United win57%

Draw21%

Crawley Town win22%

Double chance 1X

78%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

43%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals84%

Over 2.5 goals64%

Over 3.5 goals42%

Both teams to score62%

Correct score

2–19.7%
1–19.3%
2–08.0%
1–07.6%
3–16.8%

Recent form

Oxford United

2026-10-10T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Notts County · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-06T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Exeter City · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Cambridge United · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Burton Albion · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Leicester · 4-0 (W)

Crawley Town

2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Chesterfield · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-06T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Bromley · 4-0 (W)
2026-09-22T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Milton Keynes Dons · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Grimsby · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-12T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Cheltenham · 1-3 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-07-28T18:00:00.000Z · Oxford United 3-1 Crawley Town (Friendlies Clubs)
2019-11-12T19:45:00.000Z · Oxford United 4-1 Crawley Town (EFL Trophy)
2016-04-09T14:00:00.000Z · Oxford United 5-1 Crawley Town (League Two)
2015-08-08T14:00:00.000Z · Oxford United 1-1 Crawley Town (League Two)
2012-01-02T15:00:00.000Z · Oxford United 1-1 Crawley Town (League Two)
2011-11-19T15:00:00.000Z · Oxford United 1-4 Crawley Town (League Two)

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Oxford United win, at 57.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.

A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.