RAW Charging Stadium · Analysis updated 12:28 UTC
Oxford United W vs Dartford W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.86 expected goals for Oxford United W and 1.45 for Dartford W, a combined total of 3.31. That distribution gives Oxford United W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Oxford United W win
47.3% probability
Expected goals
1.86 – 1.45
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Oxford United W home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Oxford United W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 47% / 23% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.86 goals for Oxford United W and 1.45 for Dartford W, a combined 3.31 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 64% and both teams to score at 65%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
53%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.9%
- 2–19.2%
- 1–27.1%
- 1–06.8%
- 2–26.6%
Recent form
Oxford United W
- 2026-02-22T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Charlton Athletic W · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-01-18T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Middlesbrough W · 3-1 (W)
- 2025-12-14T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Plymouth Argyle W · 2-1 (W)
- 2025-11-23T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Luton Town W · 3-1 (W)
- 2025-10-26T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Hashtag United W · 1-1 (D)
Dartford W
- 2025-12-14T13:00:00.000Z · H vs London Bees W · 2-3 (L)
- 2025-11-23T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Keynsham Town W · 2-1 (W)
- 2025-10-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Forest Green Rovers W · 5-1 (W)
- 2024-10-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Actonians W · 0-2 (L)
- 2023-11-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Oxford United W · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2023-11-26T14:00:00.000Z · Oxford United W 2-0 Dartford W (FA Women's Cup)
FA Women's Cup table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bolton W | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 2 | Harrogate Town W | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Oxford United W win, at 47.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.