· Analysis updated 14:56 UTC
Oxigen Bucuresti vs Cetatea Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.69 expected goals for Oxigen Bucuresti and 2.09 for Cetatea, a combined total of 3.78. That distribution gives Cetatea the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 73% for over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Cetatea win
47.4% probability
Expected goals
1.69 – 2.09
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Oxigen Bucuresti home form
0 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Cetatea away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Cetatea to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 32% / 21% / 47% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.69 goals for Oxigen Bucuresti and 2.09 for Cetatea, a combined 3.78 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
53%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
68%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.4%
- 1–18.1%
- 2–27.1%
- 2–16.8%
- 1–35.9%
Recent form
Oxigen Bucuresti
- 2026-10-02T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Bucureşti II · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-25T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Voluntari II · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-22T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Axi Adunații-Copăceni · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-18T14:00:00.000Z · H vs FCSB II · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Dunărea 2020 Giurgiu · 2-2 (D)
Cetatea
- 2026-10-09T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Oxigen Bucuresti · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-02T14:00:00.000Z · H vs LPS HD Clinceni · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Progresul Mogosoaia · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-22T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Bucureşti II · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-18T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Voluntari II · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga III - Serie 5 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Omega Sport | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 20 |
| 2 | Alexandria | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 17 |
| 3 | LPS HD Clinceni | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 14 |
| 4 | Dunărea 2020 Giurgiu | 8 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 14 |
| 5 | Progresul Mogosoaia | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 12 |
| 6 | Axi Adunații-Copăceni | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | -1 | 12 |
| 7 | Oxigen Bucuresti | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 10 |
| 8 | Cetatea | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 9 |
| 9 | Dinamo Bucureşti II | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 9 |
| 10 | Voluntari II | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 7 |
| 11 | Progresul Spartac | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -1 | 6 |
| 12 | FCSB II | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -15 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Cetatea win, at 47.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 71% and over 2.5 goals at 73%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.