· Analysis updated 13:33 UTC
Ózd Sajóvölgye vs Debrecen II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.93 expected goals for Ózd Sajóvölgye and 1.25 for Debrecen II, a combined total of 3.18. That distribution gives Ózd Sajóvölgye the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Ózd Sajóvölgye win
53.1% probability
Expected goals
1.93 – 1.25
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ózd Sajóvölgye home form
12 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Debrecen II away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ózd Sajóvölgye to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 53% / 22% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.93 goals for Ózd Sajóvölgye and 1.25 for Debrecen II, a combined 3.18 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
47%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.1%
- 2–19.7%
- 1–08.0%
- 2–07.7%
- 1–26.3%
Recent form
Ózd Sajóvölgye
- 2026-10-11T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Diósgyőr II · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Hajdúnánás · 9-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Mátészalka · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Gödöllő · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Emodi · 5-0 (W)
Debrecen II
- 2026-10-03T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Tarpa · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Tiszafuredi VSE · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Cigand SE · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Tiszaújváros · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Ózd Sajóvölgye · 2-5 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-29T15:30:00.000Z · Ózd Sajóvölgye 5-2 Debrecen II (NB III - Northeast)
- 2026-03-14T12:00:00.000Z · Ózd Sajóvölgye 3-6 Debrecen II (NB III - Northeast)
- 2025-08-27T15:30:00.000Z · Ózd Sajóvölgye 2-2 Debrecen II (NB III - Northeast)
NB III - Northeast table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ózd Sajóvölgye | 10 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 24 | 24 |
| 2 | Cigand SE | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 23 |
| 3 | DEAC | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 20 |
| 4 | Kisvárda II | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 17 |
| 5 | Debrecen II | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 16 |
| 6 | Diósgyőr II | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 16 |
| 7 | Mátészalka | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 16 |
| 8 | Gödöllő | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 16 |
| 9 | Eger | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | -9 | 16 |
| 10 | Füzesabony | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | -1 | 15 |
| 11 | Tiszaújváros | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -1 | 13 |
| 12 | Hajdúnánás | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -10 | 10 |
| 13 | Salgótarjáni BTC | 10 | 3 | 0 | 7 | -8 | 9 |
| 14 | Tiszafuredi VSE | 10 | 3 | 0 | 7 | -9 | 9 |
| 15 | Tarpa | 10 | 2 | 0 | 8 | -14 | 6 |
| 16 | Nyiregyhaza II | 10 | 1 | 0 | 9 | -16 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Ózd Sajóvölgye win, at 53.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.