· Analysis updated 22:48 UTC
Ózd Sajóvölgye vs Nyiregyhaza Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.74 expected goals for Ózd Sajóvölgye and 1.26 for Nyiregyhaza, a combined total of 4.00. That distribution gives Ózd Sajóvölgye the largest share of the 1X2 market at 69%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 76% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 69% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Ózd Sajóvölgye win
68.6% probability
Expected goals
2.74 – 1.26
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ózd Sajóvölgye home form
12 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Nyiregyhaza away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ózd Sajóvölgye to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 69%, against 69% / 16% / 15% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.74 goals for Ózd Sajóvölgye and 1.26 for Nyiregyhaza, a combined 4.00 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
85%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
31%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.7%
- 3–17.9%
- 2–06.9%
- 1–16.3%
- 3–06.3%
Recent form
Ózd Sajóvölgye
- 2026-10-11T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Diósgyőr II · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Hajdúnánás · 9-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Mátészalka · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Gödöllő · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Emodi · 5-0 (W)
Nyiregyhaza
- 2026-10-17T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Budapest Honved · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-11T12:45:00.000Z · A vs Zalaegerszegi TE · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-10-02T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Zemplín Michalovce · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Ferencvarosi TC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Majosi · 8-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Ózd Sajóvölgye win, at 68.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 76%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.