Aijansuon stadion · Analysis updated 12:35 UTC
P-Iirot vs Ilves II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.90 expected goals for P-Iirot and 2.25 for Ilves II, a combined total of 4.15. That distribution gives Ilves II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 78% for over 2.5 goals and 76% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Ilves II win
46.6% probability
Expected goals
1.90 – 2.25
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
P-Iirot home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Ilves II away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
53%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
67%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–27.6%
- 2–27.2%
- 1–16.7%
- 2–16.4%
- 1–35.7%
Recent form
P-Iirot
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs HJS Akatemia · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs EPS · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-07T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Ilves II · 1-6 (L)
- 2026-09-02T16:00:00.000Z · H vs ÅIFK · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-28T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Honka · 1-1 (D)
Ilves II
- 2026-08-15T16:00:00.000Z · H vs NJS · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-08-08T14:00:00.000Z · A vs HJS Akatemia · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-04T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Musa · 7-0 (W)
- 2026-07-24T16:00:00.000Z · A vs P-Iirot · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-07-18T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Honka · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-07T16:00:00.000Z · P-Iirot 1-6 Ilves II (Kakkonen - Lohko B)
- 2026-07-24T16:00:00.000Z · P-Iirot 2-1 Ilves II (Kakkonen - Lohko B)
- 2026-05-17T11:00:00.000Z · P-Iirot 2-3 Ilves II (Kakkonen - Lohko B)
- 2025-09-02T15:30:00.000Z · P-Iirot 2-4 Ilves II (Kakkonen - Play-offs)
- 2025-08-16T12:00:00.000Z · P-Iirot 1-2 Ilves II (Kakkonen - Lohko B)
- 2025-06-14T15:00:00.000Z · P-Iirot 5-1 Ilves II (Kakkonen - Lohko B)
- 2024-08-01T16:00:00.000Z · P-Iirot 0-3 Ilves II (Kakkonen - Lohko B)
- 2024-05-29T16:00:00.000Z · P-Iirot 1-4 Ilves II (Kakkonen - Lohko B)
- 2023-09-02T13:00:00.000Z · P-Iirot 2-0 Ilves II (Kakkonen - Lohko B)
- 2023-06-09T16:00:00.000Z · P-Iirot 0-3 Ilves II (Kakkonen - Lohko B)
Kakkonen - Lohko B table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Ilves II win, at 46.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 76% and over 2.5 goals at 78%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.