Pachuca U21 vs Guadalajara Chivas U21 Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.83 expected goals for Pachuca U21 and 0.85 for Guadalajara Chivas U21, a combined total of 1.67. That distribution gives Guadalajara Chivas U21 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 34%, with the draw at 34%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 24% for over 2.5 goals and 32% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 19%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 34% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

66.5% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

0.83 – 0.85

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Pachuca U21 home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Guadalajara Chivas U21 away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates the draw the strongest 1X2 selection at 34%, against 32% / 34% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.83 goals for Pachuca U21 and 0.85 for Guadalajara Chivas U21, a combined 1.67 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Pachuca U21 win32%

Draw34%

Guadalajara Chivas U21 win34%

Double chance 1X

67%

Double chance 12

66%

Double chance X2

68%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals50%

Over 2.5 goals24%

Over 3.5 goals9%

Both teams to score32%

Correct score

0–018.7%
0–115.9%
1–015.5%
1–113.1%
0–26.8%

Recent form

Pachuca U21

2026-09-20T15:15:00.000Z · H vs Club Tijuana U21 · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-11T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlante U21 · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-04T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Juarez U21 · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-29T15:15:00.000Z · H vs Guadalajara Chivas U21 · 2-2 (D)
2026-08-23T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Atl. San Luis U21 · 0-0 (D)

Guadalajara Chivas U21

2026-10-10T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlas U21 · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-02T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Juarez U21 · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-26T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Queretaro U21 · 2-4 (L)
2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Club America U21 · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · H vs UNAM Pumas U21 · 0-0 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-01-10T15:00:00.000Z · Pachuca U21 2-1 Guadalajara Chivas U21 (Liga MX U21)
2025-11-02T15:15:00.000Z · Pachuca U21 2-0 Guadalajara Chivas U21 (Liga MX U21)

Liga MX U21 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Toluca U21	13	12	1	0	21	37
2	Club Leon U21	13	11	0	2	10	33
3	Club America U21	13	7	0	6	3	21
4	Guadalajara Chivas U21	13	7	0	6	0	21
5	Atl. San Luis U21	14	7	0	7	-4	21
6	Atlante U21	14	7	0	7	-4	21
7	Necaxa U21	14	7	0	7	-4	21
8	Puebla U21	13	6	2	5	3	20
9	Club Tijuana U21	13	6	2	5	-1	20
10	Cruz Azul U21	13	6	1	6	1	19
11	Santos Laguna U21	13	6	1	6	-1	19
12	Juarez U21	14	6	1	7	-3	19
13	Monterrey U21	12	5	1	6	2	16
14	UNAM Pumas U21	13	5	1	7	-1	16
15	Atlas U21	13	4	1	8	-1	13
16	Tigres UANL U21	13	4	1	8	-6	13
17	Pachuca U21	13	4	0	9	-5	12
18	Queretaro U21	12	2	0	10	-10	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 32% and over 2.5 goals at 24%.

A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.