· Analysis updated 13:50 UTC
Pachuca U21 vs Santos Laguna U21 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.29 expected goals for Pachuca U21 and 1.24 for Santos Laguna U21, a combined total of 2.53. That distribution gives Pachuca U21 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
64.5% probability
Expected goals
1.29 – 1.24
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Pachuca U21 home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Santos Laguna U21 away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Pachuca U21 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 38% / 27% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.29 goals for Pachuca U21 and 1.24 for Santos Laguna U21, a combined 2.53 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
65%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
62%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.7%
- 1–010.2%
- 0–19.9%
- 2–18.2%
- 0–07.9%
Recent form
Pachuca U21
- 2026-09-20T15:15:00.000Z · H vs Club Tijuana U21 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-11T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlante U21 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-04T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Juarez U21 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-29T15:15:00.000Z · H vs Guadalajara Chivas U21 · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-23T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Atl. San Luis U21 · 0-0 (D)
Santos Laguna U21
- 2026-08-22T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Puebla U21 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-16T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Guadalajara Chivas U21 · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-02T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Club America U21 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-07-25T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlas U21 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-07-18T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Monterrey U21 · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga MX U21 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Toluca U21 | 13 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 37 |
| 2 | Club Leon U21 | 13 | 11 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 33 |
| 3 | Club America U21 | 13 | 7 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 21 |
| 4 | Guadalajara Chivas U21 | 13 | 7 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 21 |
| 5 | Atl. San Luis U21 | 13 | 7 | 0 | 6 | -3 | 21 |
| 6 | Necaxa U21 | 13 | 7 | 0 | 6 | -3 | 21 |
| 7 | Puebla U21 | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 20 |
| 8 | Club Tijuana U21 | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | -1 | 20 |
| 9 | Cruz Azul U21 | 13 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 19 |
| 10 | Santos Laguna U21 | 13 | 6 | 1 | 6 | -1 | 19 |
| 11 | Atlante U21 | 13 | 6 | 0 | 7 | -5 | 18 |
| 12 | Monterrey U21 | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 16 |
| 13 | UNAM Pumas U21 | 13 | 5 | 1 | 7 | -1 | 16 |
| 14 | Juarez U21 | 13 | 5 | 1 | 7 | -4 | 16 |
| 15 | Atlas U21 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 8 | -1 | 13 |
| 16 | Tigres UANL U21 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 8 | -6 | 13 |
| 17 | Pachuca U21 | 13 | 4 | 0 | 9 | -5 | 12 |
| 18 | Queretaro U21 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 10 | -10 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 64.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.