· Analysis updated 06:44 UTC
Pachuca U21 vs Tigres UANL U21 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.43 expected goals for Pachuca U21 and 1.05 for Tigres UANL U21, a combined total of 2.48. That distribution gives Pachuca U21 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 45% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Pachuca U21 win
45.6% probability
Expected goals
1.43 – 1.05
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Pachuca U21 home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Tigres UANL U21 away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Pachuca U21 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 27% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.43 goals for Pachuca U21 and 1.05 for Tigres UANL U21, a combined 2.48 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
72%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.6%
- 1–012.0%
- 2–19.0%
- 0–18.8%
- 2–08.5%
Recent form
Pachuca U21
- 2026-09-20T15:15:00.000Z · H vs Club Tijuana U21 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-11T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlante U21 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-04T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Juarez U21 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-29T15:15:00.000Z · H vs Guadalajara Chivas U21 · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-23T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Atl. San Luis U21 · 0-0 (D)
Tigres UANL U21
- 2026-09-26T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Puebla U21 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-18T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Juarez U21 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Monterrey U21 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Necaxa U21 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-29T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Santos Laguna U21 · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-02-20T15:00:00.000Z · Pachuca U21 1-3 Tigres UANL U21 (Liga MX U21)
- 2025-10-22T15:15:00.000Z · Pachuca U21 4-1 Tigres UANL U21 (Liga MX U21)
Liga MX U21 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Toluca U21 | 13 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 37 |
| 2 | Club Leon U21 | 13 | 11 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 33 |
| 3 | Club America U21 | 13 | 7 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 21 |
| 4 | Guadalajara Chivas U21 | 13 | 7 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 21 |
| 5 | Atl. San Luis U21 | 14 | 7 | 0 | 7 | -4 | 21 |
| 6 | Atlante U21 | 14 | 7 | 0 | 7 | -4 | 21 |
| 7 | Necaxa U21 | 14 | 7 | 0 | 7 | -4 | 21 |
| 8 | Puebla U21 | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 20 |
| 9 | Club Tijuana U21 | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | -1 | 20 |
| 10 | Cruz Azul U21 | 13 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 19 |
| 11 | Santos Laguna U21 | 13 | 6 | 1 | 6 | -1 | 19 |
| 12 | Juarez U21 | 14 | 6 | 1 | 7 | -3 | 19 |
| 13 | Monterrey U21 | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 16 |
| 14 | UNAM Pumas U21 | 13 | 5 | 1 | 7 | -1 | 16 |
| 15 | Atlas U21 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 8 | -1 | 13 |
| 16 | Tigres UANL U21 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 8 | -6 | 13 |
| 17 | Pachuca U21 | 13 | 4 | 0 | 9 | -5 | 12 |
| 18 | Queretaro U21 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 10 | -10 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Pachuca U21 win, at 45.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 45%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.