Starlight Stadium · Referee B. Hoskins · Analysis updated 07:43 UTC
Pacific FC vs York United Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.03 expected goals for Pacific FC and 1.53 for York United, a combined total of 3.55. That distribution gives Pacific FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 69% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Pacific FC win
49.4% probability
Expected goals
2.03 – 1.53
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Pacific FC home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
York United away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.0%
- 1–18.9%
- 2–26.8%
- 1–26.8%
- 3–16.1%
Recent form
Pacific FC
- 2026-09-27T18:00:00.000Z · A vs York United · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-09-20T00:10:00.000Z · H vs Vancouver FC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Cavalry FC · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-09T23:30:00.000Z · A vs York United · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-05T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlético Ottawa · 0-0 (D)
York United
- 2026-10-16T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Supra du Quebec · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-12T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Forge · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-10-07T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Supra du Quebec · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Cavalry FC · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Pacific FC · 3-4 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-08T21:00:00.000Z · Pacific FC 1-1 York United (Canadian Premier League)
- 2026-05-17T21:00:00.000Z · Pacific FC 0-1 York United (Canadian Premier League)
- 2025-10-09T23:30:00.000Z · Pacific FC 2-2 York United (Canadian Premier League)
- 2025-08-24T20:00:00.000Z · Pacific FC 1-5 York United (Canadian Premier League)
- 2025-06-14T22:00:00.000Z · Pacific FC 1-3 York United (Canadian Premier League)
- 2025-05-11T00:00:00.000Z · Pacific FC 2-1 York United (Canadian Premier League)
- 2024-10-23T23:30:00.000Z · Pacific FC 0-2 York United (Canadian Premier League)
- 2024-10-11T00:00:00.000Z · Pacific FC 2-1 York United (Canadian Premier League)
- 2024-08-03T02:00:00.000Z · Pacific FC 1-1 York United (Canadian Premier League)
- 2024-06-19T23:00:00.000Z · Pacific FC 0-2 York United (Canadian Premier League)
Canadian Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cavalry FC | 26 | 16 | 6 | 4 | 32 | 54 |
| 2 | Forge | 26 | 16 | 6 | 4 | 26 | 54 |
| 3 | Atlético Ottawa | 26 | 13 | 4 | 9 | -1 | 43 |
| 4 | Vancouver FC | 26 | 9 | 7 | 10 | 2 | 34 |
| 5 | Supra du Quebec | 26 | 9 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 32 |
| 6 | HFX Wanderers FC | 26 | 7 | 7 | 12 | -4 | 28 |
| 7 | York United | 26 | 6 | 9 | 11 | -21 | 27 |
| 8 | Pacific FC | 26 | 2 | 8 | 16 | -27 | 14 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Pacific FC win, at 49.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 68% and over 2.5 goals at 69%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.