· Analysis updated 06:21 UTC
Pacos Ferreira vs Felgueiras 1932 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.11 expected goals for Pacos Ferreira and 1.18 for Felgueiras 1932, a combined total of 2.29. That distribution gives Felgueiras 1932 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
65.9% probability
Expected goals
1.11 – 1.18
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Pacos Ferreira home form
2 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Felgueiras 1932 away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Felgueiras 1932 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 34% / 28% / 38% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.11 goals for Pacos Ferreira and 1.18 for Felgueiras 1932, a combined 2.29 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
63%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
66%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.3%
- 0–111.9%
- 1–011.2%
- 0–010.1%
- 1–27.8%
Recent form
Pacos Ferreira
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Guimaraes B · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · H vs São João Ver · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Vianense · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-29T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Fafe · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-22T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Varzim · 1-4 (L)
Felgueiras 1932
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Naval 1893 · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Penafiel · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Vizela · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-30T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Chaves · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-24T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Farense · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 65.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.