· Analysis updated 00:34 UTC
Paderborn II vs Borussia Dortmund II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.08 expected goals for Paderborn II and 1.37 for Borussia Dortmund II, a combined total of 2.45. That distribution gives Borussia Dortmund II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
70.5% probability
Expected goals
1.08 – 1.37
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Paderborn II home form
5 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Borussia Dortmund II away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Borussia Dortmund II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 30% / 27% / 44% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.08 goals for Paderborn II and 1.37 for Borussia Dortmund II, a combined 2.45 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
57%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
71%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.8%
- 0–111.8%
- 1–09.3%
- 1–28.7%
- 0–08.6%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 11.3%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.50 (model 50.7% vs market 36.5%, edge +14.2 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.50 | 36.5% | 50.7% | 1.97 | +14.2 |
| Match result | Home | 3.10 | 29.0% | 29.6% | 3.38 | +0.6 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.35 | 70.3% | 70.5% | 1.42 | +0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.30 | 73.0% | 73.1% | 1.37 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.30 | 27.2% | 27.0% | 3.70 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.67 | 56.8% | 56.6% | 1.77 | -0.2 |
| Match result | Away | 2.05 | 43.8% | 43.5% | 2.30 | -0.3 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.44 | 63.5% | 49.3% | 2.03 | -14.2 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Paderborn II
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Sportfreunde Lotte · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-04T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Rot-weiss Oberhausen · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-25T17:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Gutersloh · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-21T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Borussia Dortmund II · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Wiedenbrück · 0-1 (L)
Borussia Dortmund II
- 2026-10-23T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Bonner SC · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Wiedenbrück · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs SG Wattenscheid 09 · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-04T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Sportfreunde Siegen · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Bocholt · 4-2 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2025-12-06T15:00:00.000Z · Paderborn II 0-1 Borussia Dortmund II (Regionalliga - West)
- 2025-07-27T12:00:00.000Z · Paderborn II 3-0 Borussia Dortmund II (Regionalliga - West)
Regionalliga - West table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Borussia Dortmund II | 14 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 17 | 34 |
| 2 | Rot-weiss Oberhausen | 13 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 19 | 31 |
| 3 | FC Gutersloh | 14 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 29 |
| 4 | Borussia M'gladbach II | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 26 |
| 5 | Sportfreunde Siegen | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 25 |
| 6 | Köln II | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 21 |
| 7 | Westfalia Rhynern | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 21 |
| 8 | Schalke 04 II | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 20 |
| 9 | Hilden | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | -5 | 19 |
| 10 | Bonner SC | 14 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 18 |
| 11 | FC Bocholt | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | -3 | 17 |
| 12 | Bergisch Gladbach | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | -8 | 17 |
| 13 | Bochum II | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | -5 | 15 |
| 14 | Paderborn II | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | -4 | 14 |
| 15 | SG Wattenscheid 09 | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -6 | 12 |
| 16 | SV Rodinghausen | 14 | 2 | 4 | 8 | -7 | 10 |
| 17 | Wiedenbrück | 14 | 2 | 2 | 10 | -19 | 8 |
| 18 | Sportfreunde Lotte | 14 | 1 | 3 | 10 | -18 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 70.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.