· Analysis updated 11:01 UTC
Paderborn U19 vs Hertha BSC U19 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.95 expected goals for Paderborn U19 and 2.29 for Hertha BSC U19, a combined total of 4.24. That distribution gives Hertha BSC U19 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 80% for over 2.5 goals and 77% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Hertha BSC U19 win
46.5% probability
Expected goals
1.95 – 2.29
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Paderborn U19 home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Hertha BSC U19 away threat
Scored in 7 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Hertha BSC U19 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 34% / 20% / 47% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.95 goals for Paderborn U19 and 2.29 for Hertha BSC U19, a combined 4.24 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
54%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
66%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–27.4%
- 2–27.2%
- 1–16.4%
- 2–16.3%
- 1–35.6%
Recent form
Paderborn U19
- 2026-09-13T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Havelse U19 · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Meppen U19 · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-30T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Hertha BSC U19 · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-08-19T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Hannover 96 U19 · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-08-15T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Wolfsburg U19 · 1-4 (L)
Hertha BSC U19
- 2026-08-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Carl Zeiss Jena U19 · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-08-15T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Hallescher FC U19 · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-08T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Eintracht Braunsch U19 · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-08-01T10:00:00.000Z · A vs SG Unterrath U19 · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-05-23T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Hallescher FC U19 · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Hertha BSC U19 win, at 46.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 77% and over 2.5 goals at 80%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.