· Analysis updated 19:22 UTC
Paderborn U19 vs Köln U19 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.76 expected goals for Paderborn U19 and 2.02 for Köln U19, a combined total of 3.78. That distribution gives Köln U19 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 73% for over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
65.7% probability
Expected goals
1.76 – 2.02
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Paderborn U19 home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Köln U19 away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Köln U19 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 34% / 21% / 45% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.76 goals for Paderborn U19 and 2.02 for Köln U19, a combined 3.78 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
56%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
66%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.2%
- 1–18.1%
- 2–27.2%
- 2–17.1%
- 1–35.5%
Recent form
Paderborn U19
- 2026-09-13T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Havelse U19 · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Meppen U19 · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-30T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Hertha BSC U19 · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-08-19T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Hannover 96 U19 · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-08-15T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Wolfsburg U19 · 1-4 (L)
Köln U19
- 2026-08-22T12:00:00.000Z · H vs FSV Frankfurt U19 · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-19T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Fortuna Köln U19 · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-08-15T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Wehen Wiesbaden U19 · 7-0 (W)
- 2026-08-09T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Mainz 05 U19 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-02T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Bochum U19 · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 65.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 72% and over 2.5 goals at 73%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.