· Analysis updated 16:52 UTC
Paduano vs Barra Mansa Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.52 expected goals for Paduano and 0.77 for Barra Mansa, a combined total of 2.29. That distribution gives Paduano the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Paduano win
55.1% probability
Expected goals
1.52 – 0.77
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Paduano home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Paduano to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 55% / 26% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.52 goals for Paduano and 0.77 for Barra Mansa, a combined 2.29 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 40% and both teams to score at 42%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
45%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–015.4%
- 1–111.9%
- 2–011.7%
- 0–010.1%
- 2–19.0%
Recent form
Paduano
- 2026-09-20T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Barra Mansa · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-13T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Serra Macaense · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Santa Cruz RJ · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Cardoso Moreira · 0-1 (L)
- 2025-11-08T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Niteroiense · 1-5 (L)
Barra Mansa
- 2026-08-31T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Campos AA · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-07-23T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Búzios · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-07-19T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Búzios · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-07-12T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Uni Souza · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-07-07T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Uni Souza · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Carioca B2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Friburguense | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 17 |
| 2 | Serra Macaense | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 13 |
| 3 | Cardoso Moreira | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 13 |
| 4 | SE Belford Roxo | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 12 |
| 5 | Santa Cruz RJ | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 6 | Paduano | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 7 | Rio de Janeiro | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 10 |
| 8 | 7 de Abril | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 10 |
| 9 | Campos AA | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 |
| 10 | Barra Mansa | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -4 | 7 |
| 11 | Búzios | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | -13 | 3 |
| 12 | Paraty | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | -17 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Paduano win, at 55.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.
A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.