Stelios Kyriakides Stadium · Analysis updated 16:10 UTC
Pafos vs Omonia 29is Maiou Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Pafos and 0.98 for Omonia 29is Maiou, a combined total of 2.46. That distribution gives Pafos the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 45% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Pafos win
48.6% probability
Expected goals
1.48 – 0.98
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Pafos home form
4 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Omonia 29is Maiou away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Pafos to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 26% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.48 goals for Pafos and 0.98 for Omonia 29is Maiou, a combined 2.46 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.6%
- 1–112.4%
- 2–09.3%
- 2–19.2%
- 0–08.5%
Recent form
Pafos
- 2026-10-15T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Atalanta · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-11T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Anorthosis · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-18T17:00:00.000Z · H vs AEL · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · A vs AEK Larnaca · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-07T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Olympiakos · 0-0 (D)
Omonia 29is Maiou
- 2026-09-18T17:00:00.000Z · H vs AEK Larnaca · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Olympiakos · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-04T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Karmiotissa · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-28T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Krasava Ypsonas · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-04-24T14:00:00.000Z · A vs MEAP Nisou · 3-3 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
1. Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AEL | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 15 |
| 2 | AEK Larnaca | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 13 |
| 3 | Omonia Nicosia | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 12 |
| 4 | Apollon Limassol | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 12 |
| 5 | Pafos | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 |
| 6 | Aris | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 9 |
| 7 | Apoel Nicosia | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
| 8 | Omonia 29is Maiou | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 9 | Omonia Aradippou | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 10 | Olympiakos | 6 | 0 | 5 | 1 | -1 | 5 |
| 11 | Nea Salamis | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 4 |
| 12 | Krasava Ypsonas | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -9 | 3 |
| 13 | Anorthosis | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -9 | 3 |
| 14 | Karmiotissa | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -7 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Pafos win, at 48.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 45%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.