Paganese vs Afragolese Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.43 expected goals for Paganese and 1.02 for Afragolese, a combined total of 2.45. That distribution gives Paganese the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Paganese win

46.4% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.43 – 1.02

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Paganese home form
5 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Afragolese away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Paganese to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 27% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.43 goals for Paganese and 1.02 for Afragolese, a combined 2.45 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Paganese win46%

Draw27%

Afragolese win27%

Double chance 1X

73%

Double chance 12

73%

Double chance X2

54%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals70%

Over 2.5 goals44%

Over 3.5 goals23%

Both teams to score49%

Correct score

1–112.6%
1–012.4%
2–19.0%
2–08.8%
0–18.8%

Recent form

Paganese

2026-10-07T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Normanna · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-04T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Sarnese · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Gelbison · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Trastevere · 6-1 (W)
2026-09-16T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Afragolese · 0-0 (D)

Afragolese

2026-10-04T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Ossese · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Città di Anagni · 0-4 (L)
2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Venafro · 4-0 (W)
2026-09-16T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Paganese · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Sarnese · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Serie D - Girone G table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Sarnese	9	6	2	1	6	20
2	Monastir	9	5	2	2	8	17
3	Certosa V. Campagnano	9	5	2	2	7	17
4	Aranova	9	4	3	2	3	15
5	Trastevere	9	4	3	2	-3	15
6	Paganese	9	4	1	4	6	13
7	Unipomezia	9	3	4	2	4	13
8	Ossese	9	3	4	2	3	13
9	Albalonga	9	3	4	2	2	13
10	Anzio	9	3	4	2	2	13
11	Città di Anagni	9	4	1	4	-1	13
12	Afragolese	9	2	5	2	2	11
13	Gelbison	9	3	1	5	-6	10
14	Sarrabus Ogliastra	9	2	3	4	-1	9
15	Venafro	9	2	3	4	-5	9
16	Budoni	9	2	2	5	-8	8
17	Latte Dolce	9	1	4	4	-5	7
18	Atletico Lodigiani	9	0	2	7	-14	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Paganese win, at 46.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.

A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.