Stadio Marcello Torre · Analysis updated 13:31 UTC
Paganese vs Unipomezia Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.92 expected goals for Paganese and 1.38 for Unipomezia, a combined total of 3.31. That distribution gives Paganese the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Paganese win
50.2% probability
Expected goals
1.92 – 1.38
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Paganese home form
5 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Unipomezia away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Paganese to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 50% / 22% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.92 goals for Paganese and 1.38 for Unipomezia, a combined 3.31 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
72%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
50%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.7%
- 2–19.4%
- 1–07.0%
- 2–06.8%
- 1–26.7%
Recent form
Paganese
- 2026-10-07T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Normanna · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-04T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Sarnese · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Gelbison · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Trastevere · 6-1 (W)
- 2026-09-16T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Afragolese · 0-0 (D)
Unipomezia
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sarrabus Ogliastra · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Ossese · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Città di Anagni · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Venafro · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Paganese · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · Paganese 2-1 Unipomezia (Serie D - Girone G)
Serie D - Girone G table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sarnese | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 20 |
| 2 | Monastir | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 16 |
| 3 | Certosa V. Campagnano | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 16 |
| 4 | Trastevere | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 14 |
| 5 | Paganese | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 13 |
| 6 | Unipomezia | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 12 |
| 7 | Ossese | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 12 |
| 8 | Albalonga | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
| 9 | Aranova | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
| 10 | Anzio | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
| 11 | Afragolese | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 12 | Città di Anagni | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 10 |
| 13 | Gelbison | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 10 |
| 14 | Venafro | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 8 |
| 15 | Budoni | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 7 |
| 16 | Sarrabus Ogliastra | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 6 |
| 17 | Latte Dolce | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -5 | 6 |
| 18 | Atletico Lodigiani | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | -14 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Paganese win, at 50.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.