Paide linnastaadion · Referee G. Osomkov · Analysis updated 14:06 UTC
Paide vs FC Levadia Tallinn Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.94 expected goals for Paide and 1.92 for FC Levadia Tallinn, a combined total of 2.86. That distribution gives FC Levadia Tallinn the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
FC Levadia Tallinn win
60.4% probability
Expected goals
0.94 – 1.92
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Paide home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
FC Levadia Tallinn away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FC Levadia Tallinn to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 60%, against 18% / 22% / 60% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.94 goals for Paide and 1.92 for FC Levadia Tallinn, a combined 2.86 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
40%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
82%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–111.0%
- 0–210.6%
- 1–110.3%
- 1–29.9%
- 0–36.8%
Recent form
Paide
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Nõmme United · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Vaprus · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Laagri · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-09T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Tammeka · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T11:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Levadia Tallinn · 0-2 (L)
FC Levadia Tallinn
- 2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Kuressaare · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-15T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Flora Tallinn · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-11T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Paide · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-07T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Keila · 10-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Trans Narva · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Meistriliiga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Levadia Tallinn | 32 | 25 | 6 | 1 | 65 | 81 |
| 2 | Flora Tallinn | 33 | 19 | 1 | 13 | 16 | 58 |
| 3 | Paide | 32 | 17 | 6 | 9 | 13 | 57 |
| 4 | Kalju Nomme | 32 | 15 | 6 | 11 | 21 | 51 |
| 5 | Tammeka | 32 | 15 | 2 | 15 | -9 | 47 |
| 6 | Laagri | 33 | 15 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 47 |
| 7 | Vaprus | 32 | 10 | 6 | 16 | -20 | 36 |
| 8 | Kuressaare | 32 | 10 | 5 | 17 | -17 | 35 |
| 9 | Nõmme United | 32 | 10 | 1 | 21 | -24 | 31 |
| 10 | Trans Narva | 32 | 5 | 5 | 22 | -45 | 20 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is FC Levadia Tallinn win, at 60.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.