Paide vs Zira Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.34 expected goals for Paide and 1.45 for Zira, a combined total of 2.79. That distribution gives Zira the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Draw/Away

65.0% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

1.34 – 1.45

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Paide win35%

Draw25%

Zira win40%

Double chance 1X

60%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

65%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals77%

Over 2.5 goals53%

Over 3.5 goals31%

Both teams to score57%

Correct score

1–111.9%
0–18.9%
1–28.6%
1–08.2%
2–18.0%

Why the model likes this

Paide home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Zira away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Zira to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 35% / 25% / 40% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.34 goals for Paide and 1.45 for Zira, a combined 2.79 — an open game on paper.

Recent form

Paide

2026-08-16T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Trans Narva · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Rapid Vienna · 0-2 (L)
2026-08-06T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Rapid Vienna · 1-4 (L)
2026-08-02T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Kuressaare · 1-0 (W)
2026-07-30T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Zira · 1-1 (D)

Zira

2026-08-16T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Safa Baku · 2-0 (W)
2026-07-30T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Paide · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-23T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Paide · 0-1 (L)
2026-07-16T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Torpedo Kutaisi · 3-0 (W)
2026-07-08T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Torpedo Kutaisi · 3-0 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-07-30T16:00:00.000Z · Paide 1-1 Zira (UEFA Europa Conference League)
2026-07-23T16:00:00.000Z · Paide 1-0 Zira (UEFA Europa Conference League)

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.