Paju Stadium · Referee P. Jeong-Ho · Analysis updated 15:50 UTC
Paju Citizen vs Busan I Park Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.99 expected goals for Paju Citizen and 1.36 for Busan I Park, a combined total of 2.35. That distribution gives Busan I Park the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Busan I Park win
45.3% probability
Expected goals
0.99 – 1.36
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Paju Citizen home form
5 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Busan I Park away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Busan I Park to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 27% / 27% / 45% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.99 goals for Paju Citizen and 1.36 for Busan I Park, a combined 2.35 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
55%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
73%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–113.0%
- 1–112.8%
- 0–09.5%
- 1–09.4%
- 0–28.8%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 11.1%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.95 (model 53.3% vs market 47.3%, edge +6.0 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.95 | 47.3% | 53.3% | 1.88 | +6.0 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.75 | 54.0% | 54.7% | 1.83 | +0.7 |
| Match result | Away | 2.00 | 45.0% | 45.3% | 2.21 | +0.3 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.30 | 27.3% | 27.4% | 3.65 | +0.1 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.30 | 72.7% | 72.7% | 1.38 | -0.0 |
| Match result | Home | 3.25 | 27.7% | 27.3% | 3.66 | -0.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.29 | 73.3% | 72.6% | 1.38 | -0.7 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.75 | 52.7% | 46.7% | 2.14 | -6.0 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Paju Citizen
- 2026-10-17T07:30:00.000Z · A vs Gimpo Citizen · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-10T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Busan I Park · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Gimhae City · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-04T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Daegu FC · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-29T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Gyeongnam FC · 0-1 (L)
Busan I Park
- 2026-10-18T07:30:00.000Z · H vs Jeonnam Dragons · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Paju Citizen · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Gimpo Citizen · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Gimhae City · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Ansan Greeners · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-30T07:30:00.000Z · Paju Citizen 1-4 Busan I Park (K League 2)
K League 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Suwon Bluewings | 28 | 19 | 5 | 4 | 25 | 62 |
| 2 | Suwon City FC | 28 | 15 | 9 | 4 | 22 | 54 |
| 3 | Seoul E-Land FC | 28 | 16 | 6 | 6 | 20 | 54 |
| 4 | Daegu FC | 28 | 15 | 7 | 6 | 17 | 52 |
| 5 | Busan I Park | 29 | 14 | 6 | 9 | 10 | 48 |
| 6 | Hwaseong | 28 | 12 | 8 | 8 | 12 | 44 |
| 7 | Asan Mugunghwa | 28 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 4 | 39 |
| 8 | Gimpo Citizen | 28 | 9 | 11 | 8 | 2 | 38 |
| 9 | Gyeongnam FC | 28 | 8 | 11 | 9 | -2 | 35 |
| 10 | Cheongju | 28 | 6 | 14 | 8 | -10 | 32 |
| 11 | Seongnam FC | 28 | 7 | 10 | 11 | -7 | 31 |
| 12 | Paju Citizen | 27 | 8 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 30 |
| 13 | Yongin City | 27 | 5 | 12 | 10 | -9 | 27 |
| 14 | Cheonan City | 27 | 5 | 11 | 11 | -6 | 26 |
| 15 | Ansan Greeners | 28 | 7 | 4 | 17 | -21 | 25 |
| 16 | Jeonnam Dragons | 28 | 5 | 9 | 14 | -17 | 24 |
| 17 | Gimhae City | 28 | 3 | 8 | 17 | -33 | 17 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Busan I Park win, at 45.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.
A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.