Paju Citizen vs Cheonan City Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.17 expected goals for Paju Citizen and 1.13 for Cheonan City, a combined total of 2.30. That distribution gives Paju Citizen the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Home/Draw

65.5% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.17 – 1.13

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Paju Citizen home form
5 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Cheonan City away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Paju Citizen to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 37%, against 37% / 28% / 35% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.17 goals for Paju Citizen and 1.13 for Cheonan City, a combined 2.30 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Paju Citizen win37%

Draw28%

Cheonan City win35%

Double chance 1X

66%

Double chance 12

72%

Double chance X2

63%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals67%

Over 2.5 goals40%

Over 3.5 goals20%

Both teams to score47%

Correct score

1–113.3%
1–011.8%
0–111.3%
0–010.0%
2–17.8%

Recent form

Paju Citizen

2026-10-17T07:30:00.000Z · A vs Gimpo Citizen · 1-4 (L)
2026-10-10T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Busan I Park · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Gimhae City · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-04T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Daegu FC · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-29T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Gyeongnam FC · 0-1 (L)

Cheonan City

2026-09-05T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Hwaseong · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-28T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Jeonnam Dragons · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-22T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Suwon Bluewings · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-16T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Gimpo Citizen · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-08T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Seongnam FC · 2-3 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

K League 2 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Suwon Bluewings	28	19	5	4	25	62
2	Suwon City FC	28	15	9	4	22	54
3	Seoul E-Land FC	28	16	6	6	20	54
4	Daegu FC	28	15	7	6	17	52
5	Busan I Park	29	14	6	9	10	48
6	Hwaseong	28	12	8	8	12	44
7	Asan Mugunghwa	28	10	9	9	4	39
8	Gimpo Citizen	28	9	11	8	2	38
9	Gyeongnam FC	28	8	11	9	-2	35
10	Cheongju	28	6	14	8	-10	32
11	Seongnam FC	28	7	10	11	-7	31
12	Paju Citizen	27	8	6	13	-7	30
13	Yongin City	27	5	12	10	-9	27
14	Cheonan City	27	5	11	11	-6	26
15	Ansan Greeners	28	7	4	17	-21	25
16	Jeonnam Dragons	28	5	9	14	-17	24
17	Gimhae City	28	3	8	17	-33	17

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.

A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.