· Analysis updated 09:18 UTC
Pakhtakor II vs Kattaqurgon Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.75 expected goals for Pakhtakor II and 1.86 for Kattaqurgon, a combined total of 2.61. That distribution gives Kattaqurgon the largest share of the 1X2 market at 64%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 64% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Kattaqurgon win
63.9% probability
Expected goals
0.75 – 1.86
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Pakhtakor II home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Kattaqurgon away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Kattaqurgon to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 64%, against 14% / 22% / 64% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.75 goals for Pakhtakor II and 1.86 for Kattaqurgon, a combined 2.61 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
36%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
86%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–113.7%
- 0–212.8%
- 1–110.2%
- 1–29.5%
- 0–37.9%
Recent form
Pakhtakor II
- 2026-10-25T10:00:00.000Z · H vs BuxDu · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-21T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Respublika FA · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Aral · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-08T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Gazalkent · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-21T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Shortan · 0-4 (L)
Kattaqurgon
- 2026-10-24T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Yaypan · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-18T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Lochin · 4-4 (D)
- 2026-10-12T10:00:00.000Z · A vs FarDu · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-08T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Metalourg · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · A vs BuxDu · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Pro League A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aral | 23 | 18 | 4 | 1 | 35 | 58 |
| 2 | Metalourg | 23 | 14 | 5 | 4 | 34 | 47 |
| 3 | Shortan | 23 | 14 | 4 | 5 | 17 | 46 |
| 4 | Gazalkent | 23 | 12 | 5 | 6 | 16 | 41 |
| 5 | Kattaqurgon | 23 | 12 | 4 | 7 | 8 | 40 |
| 6 | FarDu | 23 | 11 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 40 |
| 7 | Olimpik-Mobiuz | 23 | 11 | 6 | 6 | 18 | 39 |
| 8 | Lochin | 23 | 11 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 39 |
| 9 | Respublika FA | 24 | 8 | 6 | 10 | -2 | 30 |
| 10 | Jayxun | 24 | 7 | 4 | 13 | -8 | 25 |
| 11 | Yaypan | 24 | 7 | 4 | 13 | -17 | 25 |
| 12 | BuxDu | 24 | 5 | 1 | 18 | -31 | 16 |
| 13 | Pakhtakor II | 24 | 4 | 1 | 19 | -36 | 13 |
| 14 | Qiziriq | 24 | 1 | 1 | 22 | -48 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Kattaqurgon win, at 63.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.