Pakhtakor Central Stadium · Referee D. Rahmonov · Analysis updated 05:42 UTC
Pakhtakor vs Andijan Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.20 expected goals for Pakhtakor and 0.90 for Andijan, a combined total of 2.10. That distribution gives Pakhtakor the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 35% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
72.4% probability
Expected goals
1.20 – 0.90
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Pakhtakor home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Andijan away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Pakhtakor to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 30% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.20 goals for Pakhtakor and 0.90 for Andijan, a combined 2.10 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
72%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
57%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.7%
- 1–113.2%
- 0–012.2%
- 0–111.0%
- 2–08.8%
Recent form
Pakhtakor
- 2026-10-23T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Neftchi · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Navbahor · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-12T13:45:00.000Z · H vs Al-Qadisiyah FC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-09T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bunyodkor · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Mash'al · 2-1 (W)
Andijan
- 2026-10-15T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Qizilqum · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-09T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Buxoro · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T12:15:00.000Z · H vs Nasaf · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-15T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Olimpik-Mobiuz · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Kokand-1912 · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Neftchi | 25 | 18 | 4 | 3 | 37 | 58 |
| 2 | Pakhtakor | 25 | 15 | 8 | 2 | 19 | 53 |
| 3 | Navbahor | 24 | 13 | 7 | 4 | 18 | 46 |
| 4 | Olmaliq | 25 | 12 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 42 |
| 5 | Nasaf | 25 | 11 | 8 | 6 | 14 | 41 |
| 6 | Buxoro | 25 | 12 | 5 | 8 | 5 | 41 |
| 7 | Lokomotiv | 25 | 11 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 40 |
| 8 | Qizilqum | 25 | 10 | 4 | 11 | -6 | 34 |
| 9 | Andijan | 25 | 9 | 4 | 12 | -3 | 31 |
| 10 | Dinamo Samarqand | 25 | 8 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 31 |
| 11 | Sogdiana | 25 | 8 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 29 |
| 12 | Surkhon | 25 | 7 | 8 | 10 | -9 | 29 |
| 13 | Bunyodkor | 25 | 8 | 2 | 15 | -15 | 26 |
| 14 | Kokand-1912 | 25 | 5 | 8 | 12 | -11 | 23 |
| 15 | Xorazm | 24 | 5 | 8 | 11 | -14 | 23 |
| 16 | Mash'al | 25 | 1 | 1 | 23 | -38 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 72.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 35%.
A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.