National Stadium · Analysis updated 16:15 UTC
Pakistan vs Bangladesh U23 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Pakistan and 1.10 for Bangladesh U23, a combined total of 2.35. That distribution gives Pakistan the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
67.5% probability
Expected goals
1.25 – 1.10
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Pakistan home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Bangladesh U23 away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Pakistan to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 40% / 28% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.25 goals for Pakistan and 1.10 for Bangladesh U23, a combined 2.35 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.1%
- 1–011.9%
- 0–110.5%
- 0–09.5%
- 2–18.2%
Recent form
Pakistan
- 2026-09-29T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Philippines · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-26T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Thailand · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-06-10T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Afghanistan · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-06-07T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Afghanistan · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-06-04T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Maldives · 3-0 (W)
Bangladesh U23
- 2026-06-07T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Maldives · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-06-04T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Afghanistan · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-06-01T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Pakistan · 0-0 (D)
- 2025-09-09T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Singapore U23 · 4-1 (W)
- 2025-09-06T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Yemen U23 · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 67.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.