Paks vs Ferencvarosi TC Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.71 expected goals for Paks and 1.59 for Ferencvarosi TC, a combined total of 3.30. That distribution gives Paks the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

64.1% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.71 – 1.59

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Paks home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Ferencvarosi TC away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Paks win41%

Draw23%

Ferencvarosi TC win36%

Double chance 1X

64%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

59%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals84%

Over 2.5 goals64%

Over 3.5 goals42%

Both teams to score65%

Correct score

1–110.0%
2–18.6%
1–28.0%
2–26.8%
1–06.3%

Recent form

Paks

2026-10-10T17:30:00.000Z · H vs MTK Budapest · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Kisvarda FC · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Kazincbarcikai · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-05T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Debreceni VSC · 2-4 (L)
2026-08-29T12:45:00.000Z · A vs Nyiregyhaza · 1-1 (D)

Ferencvarosi TC

2026-10-18T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Kisvarda FC · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-15T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Plzen · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-10T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Debreceni VSC · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-20T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Nyiregyhaza · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-17T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Celtic · 3-1 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-07-26T18:00:00.000Z · Paks 4-2 Ferencvarosi TC (NB I)
2026-04-26T15:00:00.000Z · Paks 0-2 Ferencvarosi TC (NB I)
2026-02-01T14:15:00.000Z · Paks 0-1 Ferencvarosi TC (NB I)
2025-10-05T14:30:00.000Z · Paks 2-2 Ferencvarosi TC (NB I)
2025-05-14T17:00:00.000Z · Paks 1-1 Ferencvarosi TC (Magyar Kupa)
2025-05-10T17:30:00.000Z · Paks 2-3 Ferencvarosi TC (NB I)
2025-02-16T17:00:00.000Z · Paks 2-0 Ferencvarosi TC (NB I)
2024-10-06T16:00:00.000Z · Paks 3-1 Ferencvarosi TC (NB I)
2024-05-15T17:30:00.000Z · Paks 2-0 Ferencvarosi TC (Magyar Kupa)
2024-04-07T12:45:00.000Z · Paks 0-1 Ferencvarosi TC (NB I)

NB I table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Gyori ETO FC	11	6	3	2	7	21
2	Puskas Academy	10	7	0	3	5	21
3	Debreceni VSC	11	4	4	3	2	16
4	Vasas	10	4	3	3	5	15
5	Ujpest	11	4	3	4	2	15
6	Ferencvarosi TC	9	3	5	1	3	14
7	Paks	10	4	2	4	1	14
8	MTK Budapest	10	3	3	4	-1	12
9	Kisvarda FC	11	2	6	3	-1	12
10	Budapest Honved	10	2	4	4	-4	10
11	Zalaegerszegi TE	11	3	1	7	-9	10
12	Nyiregyhaza	10	2	2	6	-10	8

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 64.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.

A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.