· Referee M. Derdak · Analysis updated 21:38 UTC
Paks vs Ujpest Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.33 expected goals for Paks and 2.50 for Ujpest, a combined total of 4.83. That distribution gives Ujpest the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 86% for over 2.5 goals and 83% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
62.4% probability
Expected goals
2.33 – 2.50
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Paks home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Ujpest away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
56%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
62%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–26.8%
- 1–25.8%
- 2–35.6%
- 2–15.4%
- 3–25.3%
Recent form
Paks
- 2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Kisvarda FC · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Kazincbarcikai · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Debreceni VSC · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-08-29T12:45:00.000Z · A vs Nyiregyhaza · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-21T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Ujpest · 2-0 (W)
Ujpest
- 2026-10-11T14:45:00.000Z · A vs Budapest Honved · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Fehérvár FC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Zalaegerszegi TE · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Dorogi FC · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T15:45:00.000Z · A vs Ferencvarosi TC · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-21T15:30:00.000Z · Paks 2-0 Ujpest (NB I)
- 2026-03-07T18:30:00.000Z · Paks 0-0 Ujpest (NB I)
- 2025-11-23T15:00:00.000Z · Paks 1-3 Ujpest (NB I)
- 2025-08-10T18:00:00.000Z · Paks 2-1 Ujpest (NB I)
- 2025-03-14T19:30:00.000Z · Paks 6-1 Ujpest (NB I)
- 2024-11-09T17:30:00.000Z · Paks 0-0 Ujpest (NB I)
- 2024-08-04T16:50:00.000Z · Paks 2-1 Ujpest (NB I)
- 2024-03-31T13:30:00.000Z · Paks 1-2 Ujpest (NB I)
- 2024-02-29T18:00:00.000Z · Paks 2-1 Ujpest (Magyar Kupa)
- 2023-12-03T11:45:00.000Z · Paks 2-1 Ujpest (NB I)
NB I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Puskas Academy | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 18 |
| 2 | Vasas | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 15 |
| 3 | Gyori ETO FC | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 15 |
| 4 | Ujpest | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 15 |
| 5 | Paks | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 14 |
| 6 | Ferencvarosi TC | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 7 | Kisvarda FC | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 10 |
| 8 | Debreceni VSC | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 10 |
| 9 | MTK Budapest | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 9 |
| 10 | Zalaegerszegi TE | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | -6 | 9 |
| 11 | Nyiregyhaza | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 8 |
| 12 | Budapest Honved | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 62.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 83% and over 2.5 goals at 86%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.