· Analysis updated 09:57 UTC
Paksi SE II vs Pécsi MFC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.70 expected goals for Paksi SE II and 2.28 for Pécsi MFC, a combined total of 3.97. That distribution gives Pécsi MFC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 76% for over 2.5 goals and 73% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Pécsi MFC win
51.0% probability
Expected goals
1.70 – 2.28
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Paksi SE II home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Pécsi MFC away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Pécsi MFC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 29% / 20% / 51% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.70 goals for Paksi SE II and 2.28 for Pécsi MFC, a combined 3.97 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
49%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
71%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.3%
- 1–17.3%
- 2–27.0%
- 1–36.3%
- 2–16.2%
Recent form
Paksi SE II
- 2026-10-03T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Szekszárd · 8-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Siofok · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Budafoki LC · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs PTE-PEAC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-29T09:00:00.000Z · H vs MTK Budapest II · 2-4 (L)
Pécsi MFC
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Kaposvar · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Iváncsa · 7-0 (W)
- 2026-08-26T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Érdi VSE · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-21T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Sárbogárd · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-15T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Ferencváros II · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
NB III - Southwest table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pécsi MFC | 12 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 30 | 34 |
| 2 | Kaposvar | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 22 |
| 3 | Ferencváros II | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 21 |
| 4 | Dunaharaszti MTK | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 20 |
| 5 | Iváncsa | 11 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 18 |
| 6 | Majosi | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 18 |
| 7 | Budafoki LC | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 17 |
| 8 | PTE-PEAC | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 16 |
| 9 | MTK Budapest II | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 15 |
| 10 | Érdi VSE | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 15 |
| 11 | Siofok | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 14 |
| 12 | Budaörs | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -13 | 12 |
| 13 | Paksi SE II | 11 | 1 | 4 | 6 | -4 | 7 |
| 14 | Sárbogárd | 11 | 1 | 2 | 8 | -22 | 5 |
| 15 | Szekszárd | 11 | 0 | 0 | 11 | -40 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Pécsi MFC win, at 51.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 73% and over 2.5 goals at 76%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.