· Analysis updated 14:36 UTC
Palermo U19 vs Bari U19 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.75 expected goals for Palermo U19 and 2.25 for Bari U19, a combined total of 4.00. That distribution gives Bari U19 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 76% for over 2.5 goals and 74% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Bari U19 win
49.5% probability
Expected goals
1.75 – 2.25
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Palermo U19 home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Bari U19 away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bari U19 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 30% / 20% / 50% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.75 goals for Palermo U19 and 2.25 for Bari U19, a combined 4.00 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
51%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
70%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.1%
- 1–17.2%
- 2–27.1%
- 2–16.3%
- 1–36.1%
Recent form
Palermo U19
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Vicenza U19 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-05-09T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Perugia U19 · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-02T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Avellino U19 · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-04-25T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Catanzaro U19 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-04-18T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Crotone U19 · 7-1 (W)
Bari U19
- 2026-09-26T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Palermo U19 · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-19T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Palermo U19 · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Ascoli U19 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Salernitana U19 · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Padova U19 · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Campionato Primavera - 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Renate U19 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 7 |
| 1 | Perugia U19 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 9 |
| 2 | Vicenza U19 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 7 |
| 2 | Catanzaro U19 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 9 |
| 3 | Cremonese U19 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 |
| 3 | Avellino U19 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 9 |
| 4 | Virtus Entella U19 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 |
| 4 | Bari U19 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 7 |
| 5 | Padova U19 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
| 5 | Palermo U19 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 |
| 6 | Mantova U19 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 5 |
| 6 | Benevento U19 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 6 |
| 7 | Sampdoria U19 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 |
| 7 | Spezia U19 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 8 | Modena U19 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 8 | Monopoli U19 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 9 | Venezia U19 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 9 | Pescara U19 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 10 | Brescia U19 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 10 | Latina U19 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 11 | Cittadella U19 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 3 |
| 11 | Pisa U19 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 3 |
| 12 | Udinese U19 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 3 |
| 12 | Ascoli U19 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 13 | Sudtirol U19 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -3 | 2 |
| 13 | Napoli U19 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 14 | Reggiana U19 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 14 | Frosinone U19 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -10 | 0 |
| 15 | Pro Vercelli U19 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -6 | 1 |
| 15 | Cosenza U19 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -10 | 0 |
| 16 | Lecco U19 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -7 | 1 |
| 16 | Salernitana U19 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -13 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Bari U19 win, at 49.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 74% and over 2.5 goals at 76%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.