Tongliang Long Stadium · Analysis updated 15:19 UTC
Palestine vs New Zealand Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.09 expected goals for Palestine and 1.12 for New Zealand, a combined total of 3.21. That distribution gives Palestine the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Palestine win
59.7% probability
Expected goals
2.09 – 1.12
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
New Zealand away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Palestine to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 60%, against 60% / 21% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.09 goals for Palestine and 1.12 for New Zealand, a combined 3.21 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 62% and both teams to score at 59%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
80%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
40%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.9%
- 1–19.5%
- 2–08.8%
- 1–08.5%
- 3–16.9%
Recent form
Palestine
- 2026-10-02T11:35:00.000Z · A vs China · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-30T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Konyaspor · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-28T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Tajikistan · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-24T09:30:00.000Z · H vs New Zealand · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-06-09T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Kyrgyzstan · 0-0 (D)
New Zealand
- 2026-10-01T06:10:00.000Z · A vs Panama · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-27T11:35:00.000Z · A vs China · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-24T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Palestine · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-06-27T03:00:00.000Z · H vs Belgium · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-06-22T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Egypt · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Palestine win, at 59.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.
A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.