Republican Central Stadium · Analysis updated 16:39 UTC
Palestine W vs Korea DPR W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.11 expected goals for Palestine W and 2.37 for Korea DPR W, a combined total of 3.48. That distribution gives Korea DPR W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 65%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 65% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Korea DPR W win
65.3% probability
Expected goals
1.11 – 2.37
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Korea DPR W away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Korea DPR W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 65%, against 16% / 18% / 65% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.11 goals for Palestine W and 2.37 for Korea DPR W, a combined 3.48 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 68% and both teams to score at 61%, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
35%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
84%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.6%
- 0–28.6%
- 1–18.1%
- 1–37.6%
- 0–17.3%
Recent form
Palestine W
- 2026-10-13T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Lebanon W · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T11:15:00.000Z · A vs Lebanon W · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-06-09T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Jordan W · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-06-06T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Malaysia W · 2-0 (W)
- 2025-07-05T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Tajikistan W · 3-0 (W)
Korea DPR W
- 2026-09-29T06:00:00.000Z · H vs China W · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-25T06:00:00.000Z · H vs Chinese Taipei W · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-21T07:00:00.000Z · A vs South Korea W · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-17T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Myanmar W · 8-0 (W)
- 2026-09-14T07:00:00.000Z · H vs Bangladesh W · 10-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Korea DPR W win, at 65.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.