Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna · Referee J. Cabero · Analysis updated 06:56 UTC
Palestino vs Coquimbo Unido Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.60 expected goals for Palestino and 1.25 for Coquimbo Unido, a combined total of 2.85. That distribution gives Palestino the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Palestino win
45.5% probability
Expected goals
1.60 – 1.25
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Palestino home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Coquimbo Unido away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.6%
- 2–19.3%
- 1–09.3%
- 2–07.4%
- 0–17.2%
Recent form
Palestino
- 2026-09-12T23:00:00.000Z · H vs U. Catolica · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Universidad de Concepcion · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-28T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Cobresal · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-23T23:00:00.000Z · A vs O'Higgins · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-18T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Huachipato · 5-1 (W)
Coquimbo Unido
- 2026-10-11T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Colo Colo · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-10-07T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Cobreloa · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-22T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Cobreloa · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Cobresal · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Universidad de Chile · 2-4 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-01T21:30:00.000Z · Palestino 2-1 Coquimbo Unido (Primera División)
- 2026-02-07T15:00:00.000Z · Palestino 1-3 Coquimbo Unido (Primera División)
- 2025-11-08T20:30:00.000Z · Palestino 1-2 Coquimbo Unido (Primera División)
- 2025-05-25T00:00:00.000Z · Palestino 0-0 Coquimbo Unido (Primera División)
- 2024-10-06T15:30:00.000Z · Palestino 2-0 Coquimbo Unido (Primera División)
- 2024-06-06T21:30:00.000Z · Palestino 0-0 Coquimbo Unido (Primera División)
- 2023-07-17T19:00:00.000Z · Palestino 1-1 Coquimbo Unido (Primera División)
- 2023-01-28T15:00:00.000Z · Palestino 1-1 Coquimbo Unido (Primera División)
- 2022-07-16T17:15:00.000Z · Palestino 5-1 Coquimbo Unido (Primera División)
- 2022-02-20T15:00:00.000Z · Palestino 2-2 Coquimbo Unido (Primera División)
Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Colo Colo | 25 | 17 | 4 | 4 | 23 | 55 |
| 2 | Universidad de Chile | 24 | 13 | 6 | 5 | 22 | 45 |
| 3 | U. Catolica | 24 | 13 | 3 | 8 | 15 | 42 |
| 4 | Everton de Vina | 24 | 11 | 6 | 7 | 13 | 39 |
| 5 | Palestino | 25 | 11 | 5 | 9 | 3 | 38 |
| 6 | Deportes Limache | 25 | 11 | 4 | 10 | 9 | 37 |
| 7 | Nublense | 25 | 9 | 8 | 8 | -8 | 35 |
| 8 | D. La Serena | 25 | 8 | 9 | 8 | -3 | 33 |
| 9 | Coquimbo Unido | 24 | 9 | 5 | 10 | 2 | 32 |
| 10 | Concepción | 25 | 9 | 5 | 11 | -3 | 32 |
| 11 | Huachipato | 24 | 9 | 5 | 10 | -6 | 32 |
| 12 | A. Italiano | 24 | 7 | 8 | 9 | -5 | 29 |
| 13 | O'Higgins | 25 | 8 | 4 | 13 | -10 | 28 |
| 14 | Cobresal | 25 | 7 | 5 | 13 | -10 | 26 |
| 15 | Universidad de Concepcion | 25 | 6 | 5 | 14 | -23 | 23 |
| 16 | Union La Calera | 25 | 5 | 6 | 14 | -19 | 21 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Palestino win, at 45.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.