Palestino vs Everton de Vina Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.41 expected goals for Palestino and 1.50 for Everton de Vina, a combined total of 2.91. That distribution gives Everton de Vina the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Draw/Away

64.2% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.41 – 1.50

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Palestino home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Everton de Vina away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Everton de Vina to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 36% / 25% / 40% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.41 goals for Palestino and 1.50 for Everton de Vina, a combined 2.91 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Palestino win36%

Draw25%

Everton de Vina win40%

Double chance 1X

61%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

64%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals79%

Over 2.5 goals56%

Over 3.5 goals33%

Both teams to score59%

Correct score

1–111.5%
1–28.6%
0–18.2%
2–18.1%
1–07.7%

Recent form

Palestino

2026-09-12T23:00:00.000Z · H vs U. Catolica · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-06T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Universidad de Concepcion · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-28T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Cobresal · 0-2 (L)
2026-08-23T23:00:00.000Z · A vs O'Higgins · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-18T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Huachipato · 5-1 (W)

Everton de Vina

2026-10-11T15:30:00.000Z · H vs D. La Serena · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-27T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Universidad de Chile · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-27T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Universidad de Chile · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-12T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Nublense · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-05T21:30:00.000Z · H vs U. Catolica · 0-1 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Primera División table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Colo Colo	25	17	4	4	23	55
2	Universidad de Chile	24	13	6	5	22	45
3	U. Catolica	24	13	3	8	15	42
4	Everton de Vina	24	11	6	7	13	39
5	Palestino	25	11	5	9	3	38
6	Deportes Limache	25	11	4	10	9	37
7	Nublense	25	9	8	8	-8	35
8	D. La Serena	25	8	9	8	-3	33
9	Coquimbo Unido	24	9	5	10	2	32
10	Concepción	25	9	5	11	-3	32
11	Huachipato	24	9	5	10	-6	32
12	A. Italiano	24	7	8	9	-5	29
13	O'Higgins	25	8	4	13	-10	28
14	Cobresal	25	7	5	13	-10	26
15	Universidad de Concepcion	25	6	5	14	-23	23
16	Union La Calera	25	5	6	14	-19	21

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 64.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.

A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.