Palestino vs U. Catolica Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.73 expected goals for Palestino and 1.89 for U. Catolica, a combined total of 3.62. That distribution gives U. Catolica the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 70% for over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

64.0% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.73 – 1.89

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Palestino home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
U. Catolica away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates U. Catolica to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 36% / 22% / 42% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.73 goals for Palestino and 1.89 for U. Catolica, a combined 3.62 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Palestino win36%

Draw22%

U. Catolica win42%

Double chance 1X

58%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

64%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals88%

Over 2.5 goals70%

Over 3.5 goals49%

Both teams to score70%

Correct score

1–18.8%
1–28.3%
2–17.6%
2–27.2%
1–35.2%

Recent form

Palestino

2026-09-12T23:00:00.000Z · H vs U. Catolica · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-06T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Universidad de Concepcion · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-28T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Cobresal · 0-2 (L)
2026-08-23T23:00:00.000Z · A vs O'Higgins · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-18T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Huachipato · 5-1 (W)

U. Catolica

2026-09-26T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Union La Calera · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-23T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Union La Calera · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-12T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Palestino · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-05T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Everton de Vina · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-01T00:45:00.000Z · H vs O'Higgins · 3-2 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Primera División table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Colo Colo	23	17	3	3	26	54
2	U. Catolica	23	13	3	7	17	42
3	Universidad de Chile	23	12	6	5	16	42
4	Everton de Vina	23	10	6	7	12	36
5	Palestino	23	11	3	9	3	36
6	Deportes Limache	23	10	3	10	8	33
7	Nublense	23	8	8	7	-3	32
8	Concepción	23	9	4	10	-1	31
9	D. La Serena	23	7	9	7	-4	30
10	Coquimbo Unido	22	8	5	9	0	29
11	A. Italiano	23	7	7	9	-5	28
12	Huachipato	22	8	4	10	-8	28
13	O'Higgins	23	8	3	12	-8	27
14	Cobresal	23	7	3	13	-10	24
15	Universidad de Concepcion	23	6	4	13	-22	22
16	Union La Calera	23	4	5	14	-21	17

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 64.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 70% and over 2.5 goals at 70%.

A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.