Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna · Referee F. Vejar · Analysis updated 13:10 UTC
Palestino vs Universidad de Concepcion Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.84 expected goals for Palestino and 0.91 for Universidad de Concepcion, a combined total of 2.75. That distribution gives Palestino the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Palestino win
59.3% probability
Expected goals
1.84 – 0.91
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Palestino home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Universidad de Concepcion away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 7 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
82%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
41%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–011.8%
- 2–010.8%
- 1–110.7%
- 2–19.8%
- 3–06.6%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 7.9%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.33 | 68.0% | 70.3% | 1.42 | +2.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.22 | 76.0% | 77.5% | 1.29 | +1.5 |
| Both teams to score | No | 1.88 | 48.9% | 49.7% | 2.01 | +0.8 |
| Match result | Home | 1.58 | 58.6% | 59.3% | 1.69 | +0.7 |
| Match result | Away | 5.30 | 17.5% | 18.2% | 5.49 | +0.7 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 1.96 | 47.9% | 48.2% | 2.07 | +0.3 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.80 | 52.1% | 51.8% | 1.93 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.25 | 41.2% | 40.7% | 2.46 | -0.5 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.80 | 51.1% | 50.3% | 1.99 | -0.8 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.12 | 82.8% | 81.8% | 1.22 | -1.0 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.88 | 23.9% | 22.5% | 4.44 | -1.4 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 2.83 | 32.0% | 29.7% | 3.37 | -2.3 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Palestino
- 2026-09-12T23:00:00.000Z · H vs U. Catolica · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Universidad de Concepcion · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-28T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Cobresal · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-23T23:00:00.000Z · A vs O'Higgins · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-18T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Huachipato · 5-1 (W)
Universidad de Concepcion
- 2026-09-06T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Palestino · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-02T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Coquimbo Unido · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-30T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Universidad de Chile · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-24T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Everton de Vina · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-14T23:00:00.000Z · H vs D. La Serena · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-03-15T15:00:00.000Z · Palestino 0-1 Universidad de Concepcion (Primera División)
- 2021-01-07T20:00:00.000Z · Palestino 1-1 Universidad de Concepcion (Primera División)
- 2020-10-01T16:30:00.000Z · Palestino 0-1 Universidad de Concepcion (Primera División)
- 2019-09-01T16:30:00.000Z · Palestino 0-0 Universidad de Concepcion (Primera División)
- 2019-03-09T20:30:00.000Z · Palestino 4-1 Universidad de Concepcion (Primera División)
- 2018-07-21T00:00:00.000Z · Palestino 2-3 Universidad de Concepcion (Primera División)
- 2018-05-06T18:00:00.000Z · Palestino 1-2 Universidad de Concepcion (Primera División)
Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Colo Colo | 25 | 17 | 4 | 4 | 23 | 55 |
| 2 | Universidad de Chile | 24 | 13 | 6 | 5 | 22 | 45 |
| 3 | U. Catolica | 24 | 13 | 3 | 8 | 15 | 42 |
| 4 | Everton de Vina | 24 | 11 | 6 | 7 | 13 | 39 |
| 5 | Palestino | 25 | 11 | 5 | 9 | 3 | 38 |
| 6 | Deportes Limache | 25 | 11 | 4 | 10 | 9 | 37 |
| 7 | Nublense | 25 | 9 | 8 | 8 | -8 | 35 |
| 8 | D. La Serena | 25 | 8 | 9 | 8 | -3 | 33 |
| 9 | Coquimbo Unido | 24 | 9 | 5 | 10 | 2 | 32 |
| 10 | Concepción | 25 | 9 | 5 | 11 | -3 | 32 |
| 11 | Huachipato | 24 | 9 | 5 | 10 | -6 | 32 |
| 12 | A. Italiano | 24 | 7 | 8 | 9 | -5 | 29 |
| 13 | O'Higgins | 25 | 8 | 4 | 13 | -10 | 28 |
| 14 | Cobresal | 25 | 7 | 5 | 13 | -10 | 26 |
| 15 | Universidad de Concepcion | 25 | 6 | 5 | 14 | -23 | 23 |
| 16 | Union La Calera | 25 | 5 | 6 | 14 | -19 | 21 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Palestino win, at 59.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.