· Analysis updated 15:09 UTC
Palmacia vs Pacatuba Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.02 expected goals for Palmacia and 1.57 for Pacatuba, a combined total of 2.59. That distribution gives Pacatuba the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Pacatuba win
49.9% probability
Expected goals
1.02 – 1.57
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Palmacia home form
1 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Pacatuba to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 25% / 25% / 50% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.02 goals for Palmacia and 1.57 for Pacatuba, a combined 2.59 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 48% and both teams to score at 51%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
50%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
75%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.0%
- 0–111.7%
- 1–29.4%
- 0–29.2%
- 1–07.7%
Recent form
Palmacia
- 2026-08-30T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Pacatuba · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-23T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Esporte Limoeiro · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-18T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Tianguá · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-08T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Vila Real · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-02T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Acopiara · 2-3 (L)
Pacatuba
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Cearense - 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vila Real | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 14 |
| 2 | Acopiara | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 13 |
| 3 | Esporte Limoeiro | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 10 |
| 4 | Pacatuba | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 10 |
| 5 | Calouros do Ar | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -3 | 6 |
| 6 | Tianguá | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 4 |
| 7 | Palmacia | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Pacatuba win, at 49.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.