· Analysis updated 08:28 UTC
Palmeiras U20 vs Capivariano U20 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.21 expected goals for Palmeiras U20 and 0.84 for Capivariano U20, a combined total of 2.05. That distribution gives Palmeiras U20 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 34% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
74.2% probability
Expected goals
1.21 – 0.84
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Palmeiras U20 home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Capivariano U20 away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Palmeiras U20 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 30% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.21 goals for Palmeiras U20 and 0.84 for Capivariano U20, a combined 2.05 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
56%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–015.5%
- 1–113.1%
- 0–012.8%
- 0–110.8%
- 2–09.4%
Recent form
Palmeiras U20
- 2026-10-22T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Botafogo U20 · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Botafogo SP U20 · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-15T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Botafogo U20 · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-12T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Botafogo SP U20 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-09T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Santos U20 · 3-3 (D)
Capivariano U20
- 2026-08-21T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Flamengo SP U20 · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-15T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Guarani U20 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-11T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Água Santa U20 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-06T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Gremio Prudente U20 · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-07-31T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Porto Football U20 · 4-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-11T13:00:00.000Z · Palmeiras U20 2-2 Capivariano U20 (Paulista - U20)
Paulista - U20 table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 74.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 40% and over 2.5 goals at 34%.
A 74% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.