· Analysis updated 16:37 UTC
Palmeiras U20 vs Sfera U20 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.75 expected goals for Palmeiras U20 and 0.84 for Sfera U20, a combined total of 2.59. That distribution gives Palmeiras U20 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Palmeiras U20 win
58.8% probability
Expected goals
1.75 – 0.84
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Palmeiras U20 home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Palmeiras U20 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 59%, against 59% / 23% / 18% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.75 goals for Palmeiras U20 and 0.84 for Sfera U20, a combined 2.59 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 48% and both teams to score at 47%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
82%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
41%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.1%
- 2–011.4%
- 1–111.0%
- 2–19.7%
- 0–07.5%
Recent form
Palmeiras U20
- 2026-09-25T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Ituano U20 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-21T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Ituano U20 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-16T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Naviraiense U20 · 10-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Sfera U20 · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-08T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Água Santa U20 · 2-1 (W)
Sfera U20
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Paulista - U20 table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Palmeiras U20 win, at 58.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.