Palmeiras U20 vs Vasco da Gama U20 Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.68 expected goals for Palmeiras U20 and 1.13 for Vasco da Gama U20, a combined total of 2.80. That distribution gives Palmeiras U20 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Palmeiras U20 win

50.2% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.68 – 1.13

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Palmeiras U20 home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Vasco da Gama U20 away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 7 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Palmeiras U20 win50%

Draw24%

Vasco da Gama U20 win26%

Double chance 1X

74%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

50%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals77%

Over 2.5 goals53%

Over 3.5 goals31%

Both teams to score55%

Correct score

1–111.5%
1–010.2%
2–19.6%
2–08.5%
0–16.8%

Recent form

Palmeiras U20

2026-10-22T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Botafogo U20 · 4-2 (W)
2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Botafogo SP U20 · 3-0 (W)
2026-10-15T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Botafogo U20 · 4-1 (W)
2026-10-12T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Botafogo SP U20 · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-09T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Santos U20 · 3-3 (D)

Vasco da Gama U20

2026-10-17T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Sampaio Correa FE U20 · 3-0 (W)
2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Flamengo U20 · 4-0 (W)
2026-10-08T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Flamengo U20 · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Fluminense U20 · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-30T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Madureira U20 · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-08-28T21:00:00.000Z · Palmeiras U20 1-0 Vasco da Gama U20 (Brasileiro U20 A)
2026-04-22T19:00:00.000Z · Palmeiras U20 2-2 Vasco da Gama U20 (Brasileiro U20 A)
2025-07-02T22:00:00.000Z · Palmeiras U20 2-1 Vasco da Gama U20 (Brasileiro U20 A)
2022-08-18T18:00:00.000Z · Palmeiras U20 1-0 Vasco da Gama U20 (Brasileiro U20 A)
2022-08-14T19:00:00.000Z · Palmeiras U20 0-1 Vasco da Gama U20 (Brasileiro U20 A)
2021-10-04T19:15:00.000Z · Palmeiras U20 4-1 Vasco da Gama U20 (Brasileiro U20 A)
2020-11-28T18:00:00.000Z · Palmeiras U20 1-0 Vasco da Gama U20 (Brasileiro U20 A)

Brasileiro U20 A table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Palmeiras U20	19	13	5	1	31	44
2	Vasco da Gama U20	19	11	3	5	17	36
3	Botafogo U20	19	11	3	5	12	36
4	RB Bragantino U20	19	10	4	5	14	34
5	Athletico PR U20	19	9	5	5	14	32
6	Santos U20	19	9	4	6	5	31
7	Cruzeiro U20	19	8	5	6	8	29
8	Corinthians U20	19	8	5	6	6	29
9	Bahia U20	19	8	5	6	2	29
10	Flamengo U20	19	7	7	5	-1	28
11	São Paulo U20	19	6	7	6	1	25
12	América Mineiro U20	19	6	7	6	-12	25
13	Cuiabá U20	19	6	3	10	-8	21
14	Vitória U20	19	5	5	9	-11	20
15	Fluminense U20	19	5	4	10	-6	19
16	Grêmio U20	19	6	1	12	-11	19
17	Juventude U20	19	5	3	11	-19	18
18	Criciuma U20	19	5	2	12	-16	17
19	Avaí U20	19	3	7	9	-19	16
20	Fortaleza U20	19	2	9	8	-7	15

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Palmeiras U20 win, at 50.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.

A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.