Palmeiras vs Vasco DA Gama Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.18 expected goals for Palmeiras and 1.43 for Vasco DA Gama, a combined total of 2.60. That distribution gives Vasco DA Gama the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Draw/Away

68.9% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.18 – 1.43

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Palmeiras home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Vasco DA Gama away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Palmeiras win31%

Draw26%

Vasco DA Gama win43%

Double chance 1X

57%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

69%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals73%

Over 2.5 goals48%

Over 3.5 goals26%

Both teams to score53%

Correct score

1–112.4%
0–110.6%
1–28.9%
1–08.7%
0–27.5%

Recent form

Palmeiras

2026-10-24T21:30:00.000Z · H vs RB Bragantino · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-22T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Fluminense · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-17T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Atletico Paranaense · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-15T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Fluminense · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-11T20:30:00.000Z · H vs Corinthians · 4-1 (W)

Vasco DA Gama

2026-10-24T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Corinthians · 3-2 (W)
2026-10-21T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Boca Juniors · 1-3 (L)
2026-10-18T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Sao Paulo · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-14T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Boca Juniors · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-10T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Remo · 0-0 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-08-23T19:00:00.000Z · Palmeiras 4-1 Vasco DA Gama (Serie A)
2026-03-12T22:30:00.000Z · Palmeiras 1-2 Vasco DA Gama (Serie A)
2025-10-01T22:00:00.000Z · Palmeiras 3-0 Vasco DA Gama (Serie A)
2025-05-04T19:00:00.000Z · Palmeiras 1-0 Vasco DA Gama (Serie A)
2024-09-22T19:00:00.000Z · Palmeiras 1-0 Vasco DA Gama (Serie A)
2024-06-14T00:30:00.000Z · Palmeiras 2-0 Vasco DA Gama (Serie A)
2023-08-27T21:30:00.000Z · Palmeiras 1-0 Vasco DA Gama (Serie A)
2023-04-23T19:00:00.000Z · Palmeiras 2-2 Vasco DA Gama (Serie A)
2021-01-26T23:00:00.000Z · Palmeiras 1-1 Vasco DA Gama (Serie A)
2020-11-08T19:00:00.000Z · Palmeiras 1-0 Vasco DA Gama (Serie A)

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 68.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.

A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.