Paloma vs ETSV Hamburg Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.18 expected goals for Paloma and 2.03 for ETSV Hamburg, a combined total of 4.20. That distribution gives Paloma the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 79% for over 2.5 goals and 77% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

62.9% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.18 – 2.03

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Paloma home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Paloma to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 20% / 37% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.18 goals for Paloma and 2.03 for ETSV Hamburg, a combined 4.20 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 79% and both teams to score at 77%, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%.

Match result (1X2)

Paloma win43%

Draw20%

ETSV Hamburg win37%

Double chance 1X

63%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

57%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals92%

Over 2.5 goals79%

Over 3.5 goals60%

Both teams to score77%

Correct score

2–27.3%
2–17.2%
1–26.7%
1–16.6%
3–25.3%

Recent form

Paloma

2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Buchholz · 4-2 (W)
2026-10-04T08:45:00.000Z · H vs ETSV Hamburg · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Concordia · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-20T08:45:00.000Z · H vs Teutonia Ottensen · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-12T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Tus Dassendorf · 2-1 (W)

ETSV Hamburg

2026-10-09T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Niendorfer TSV · 4-6 (L)
2026-10-04T08:45:00.000Z · A vs Paloma · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Nikola Tesla · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-11T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Harksheide · 2-3 (L)
2026-08-28T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Buchholz · 1-4 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Oberliga - Hamburg table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Paloma	13	9	2	2	13	29
2	Victoria Hamburg	13	7	5	1	11	26
3	Vorwärts-Wacker 04	13	7	3	3	6	24
4	Tus Dassendorf	12	7	2	3	16	23
5	Niendorfer TSV	13	7	2	4	3	23
6	Altona 93	12	6	3	3	5	21
7	HT16	12	6	2	4	13	20
8	Pinneberg	12	6	2	4	6	20
9	Süderelbe	13	5	3	5	3	18
10	Sasel	12	5	2	5	-2	17
11	HEBC	12	5	0	7	-3	15
12	Buchholz	12	4	3	5	-9	15
13	ETSV Hamburg	12	4	2	6	-1	14
14	Teutonia Ottensen	13	3	3	7	-11	12
15	Nikola Tesla	12	3	2	7	-2	11
16	Concordia	13	3	2	8	-15	11
17	Harksheide	12	1	5	6	-11	8
18	Norderstedt II	13	2	1	10	-22	7

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 62.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 77% and over 2.5 goals at 79%.

A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.