Paloma vs Sasel Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.88 expected goals for Paloma and 2.13 for Sasel, a combined total of 4.00. That distribution gives Sasel the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 76% for over 2.5 goals and 75% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

65.1% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.88 – 2.13

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Paloma home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Sasel away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 8 of the last 9 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Paloma win35%

Draw21%

Sasel win45%

Double chance 1X

56%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

65%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals91%

Over 2.5 goals76%

Over 3.5 goals57%

Both teams to score75%

Correct score

1–27.8%
1–17.3%
2–27.3%
2–16.8%
1–35.5%

Recent form

Paloma

2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Buchholz · 4-2 (W)
2026-10-04T08:45:00.000Z · H vs ETSV Hamburg · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Concordia · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-20T08:45:00.000Z · H vs Teutonia Ottensen · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-12T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Tus Dassendorf · 2-1 (W)

Sasel

2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Vorwärts-Wacker 04 · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-20T10:30:00.000Z · A vs HT16 · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-13T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Niendorfer TSV · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-06T08:45:00.000Z · A vs Paloma · 2-3 (L)
2026-08-30T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Nikola Tesla · 3-2 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-05-03T08:45:00.000Z · Paloma 2-2 Sasel (Oberliga - Hamburg)
2025-08-17T13:00:00.000Z · Paloma 4-4 Sasel (Oberliga - Hamburg)
2024-12-07T12:30:00.000Z · Paloma 2-1 Sasel (Oberliga - Hamburg)
2024-08-18T08:45:00.000Z · Paloma 3-1 Sasel (Oberliga - Hamburg)
2024-04-07T08:45:00.000Z · Paloma 1-1 Sasel (Oberliga - Hamburg)
2023-10-08T13:00:00.000Z · Paloma 1-2 Sasel (Oberliga - Hamburg)
2023-02-26T09:45:00.000Z · Paloma 0-3 Sasel (Oberliga - Hamburg)
2022-09-18T13:00:00.000Z · Paloma 1-3 Sasel (Oberliga - Hamburg)
2021-12-04T12:00:00.000Z · Paloma 3-3 Sasel (Oberliga - Hamburg)

Oberliga - Hamburg table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Paloma	13	9	2	2	13	29
2	Victoria Hamburg	13	7	5	1	11	26
3	Vorwärts-Wacker 04	13	7	3	3	6	24
4	Tus Dassendorf	12	7	2	3	16	23
5	HT16	13	7	2	4	14	23
6	Niendorfer TSV	13	7	2	4	3	23
7	Altona 93	12	6	3	3	5	21
8	Pinneberg	12	6	2	4	6	20
9	Sasel	13	6	2	5	-1	20
10	Süderelbe	13	5	3	5	3	18
11	HEBC	13	5	0	8	-4	15
12	Buchholz	13	4	3	6	-10	15
13	ETSV Hamburg	12	4	2	6	-1	14
14	Teutonia Ottensen	13	3	3	7	-11	12
15	Nikola Tesla	12	3	2	7	-2	11
16	Concordia	13	3	2	8	-15	11
17	Harksheide	12	1	5	6	-11	8
18	Norderstedt II	13	2	1	10	-22	7

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 65.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 75% and over 2.5 goals at 76%.

A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.